China humanoid robots market faces bubble fears as regulators warn of overheating

Chinese policymakers are sounding the alarm that the rapid boom in humanoid robots could create a bubble in the country’s advanced manufacturing sector.

Why is China worried about an overheating humanoid robots market?

China’s top economic planner has warned that the overwhelming production of highly similar humanoid robots risks destabilizing the industry. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) now wants to steer the sector toward consolidation, technology-sharing, and deeper research and development, rather than pure output growth.

Humanoid robotics is seen in Beijing as a strategic pillar for future economic expansion. However, officials are increasingly concerned that the market is becoming overcrowded, with more than 150 firms already building human-like machines. Many of their products are nearly indistinguishable, raising fears that capital is chasing hype instead of genuine innovation.

What did the NDRC say about ‘copy-cat’ humanoid designs?

At a press briefing on November 27, an NDRC spokeswoman highlighted that more than 150 Chinese firms are now producing humanoid robots, many of which are “highly similar.” This wave of near-identical models, she warned, could swarm the market, crowd out true technological breakthroughs, and misallocate investment that should be going into advanced R&D.

Moreover, regulators fear the sector could be overrun with clones chasing short-term investor enthusiasm. The NDRC stressed that this pattern could leave the industry vulnerable to a sharp correction if commercial adoption fails to keep pace with soaring production.

To address these risks, the government has pledged to accelerate clearer rules for market entry and exit. It also plans to encourage robot makers to merge, cooperate, and share technology, so that industrial resources are deployed more efficiently across companies.

How fast is China’s humanoid robot production scaling up?

Despite regulatory concerns, corporate investment continues to surge. Companies such as UBTech Robotics are dramatically scaling production lines for their humanoid robot models. According to the South China Morning Post, UBTech intends to expand its output tenfold in 2026, while its unit production costs are falling by roughly 20% per year as economies of scale kick in.

UBTech recently launched its “Walker S2” industrial humanoid and claims to have secured orders worth more than 800 million yuan (about $112 million) this year. However, while institutional demand is rising, overall sales remain modest. Industry-wide shipments are projected to exceed only 10,000 humanoid units in 2025, a small base for such intense investment.

How do government policy and embodied AI shape the sector?

Chinese analysts say much of the industry’s momentum is driven by supportive state policy. This year, China’s official government work report included “embodied AI” for the first time, referring to robots and AI systems that physically interact with the real world. That said, officials now want to balance promotion with stricter risk control.

Since 2021, China has accounted for more than half of the world’s new industrial robots, cementing its role as a global automation hub. Its “robot density” — the number of robots per 10,000 employees — climbed from 97 in 2017 to 470 in 2023, nearly a fourfold increase. Moreover, this trajectory underpins Beijing’s ambition to upgrade manufacturing through robotics and artificial intelligence.

In this context, the primary_keyword humanoid robots is both an emblem of technological ambition and a source of regulatory anxiety, as authorities try to ensure long-term sustainability rather than a speculative boom-and-bust cycle.

Is real-world adoption keeping pace with the hype?

For all the buzz, real-world deployment remains limited. Institutional customers are starting to test humanoid machines in industrial and service roles. However, everyday use in households and consumer environments is still rare, underscoring the gap between investment narratives and current practicality.

Still, China’s manufacturing and tech sectors continue to pour capital and talent into advanced robotics. Whether the government’s push for clearer rules, consolidation, and collaboration can prevent a damaging correction will be a crucial test for its broader innovation-led growth strategy.

In summary, China’s humanoid robotics drive is accelerating on the back of policy support and aggressive corporate expansion, yet regulators now aim to cool speculative excess, promote genuine innovation, and align production more closely with sustainable long-term demand.

Keyword principale: humanoid robots