Solana Price at Make-Or-Break Region: Rally to $200 Imminent?

Key Insights:

• Analysts have pegged the $142 price level as a major resistance zone for Solana price.
• One analyst accused institutions of manipulating the market after SOL failed to cross a soft resistance level.
• The Fed and the Bank of Japan will announce eagerly awaited monetary policy decisions in December.

Solana (SOL) price was hovering just below the $142 mark on Thursday morning. $142 is a strong point of interest among crypto traders. These traders noted that SOL could take off to as high as $200 if it clears it decisively. The opposite side of the estimates puts SOL’s price as low as $125.

These assessments become more interesting when considering the impact of SOL Spot ETFs. Notably, SOL Spot ETFs finally broke their ‘perfect’ net inflow streak yesterday, when SOL was above its average levels over the past few days.

This report presents a more detailed description of some notable price analyses and the market context for the Solana price.

Solana Price Near Critical Resistance

Crypto trader and regular X commentator Ali pointed out that at $142, around 13 million SOL were accumulated. In his X post, Ali shared a Glassnode Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap that showed a brighter streak at the said level.

Ali noted that the heavy accumulation at $142 meant that it was ‘a major resistance area’ for Solana price.

Cost basis means the total original price of the SOL when it was last purchased. That is, the basis is the sum of the price and the transaction costs.

The cost basis heatmap shows the distribution of each Solana based on its latest traded price. The chart shared by Ali shows that around 13 million SOL were bought at around $142.

Earlier today, Ali pointed out that according to the SOL Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart, investors were capitulating.

This chart shows whether the average SOL crypto is in profit or loss. The chart Ali shared (also by Glassnode) showed the NUPL under zero.

A negative value indicates the average SOL is in an unrealized loss. In other words, it was trading at a price point below its last purchase price.

According to Ali, SOL price bottomed because investors capitulated over the past two weeks. Bitcoin had dipped to as low as $80,000 in that time span. Moreover, BTC and ETH Spot ETFs posted record levels of net outflows.

Is the $200 Mark Imminent After Rejection?

Trader DevKhabib (on X) placed his downside projection for Solana price at $125 after it showed a soft rejection at $141. Khabib argued that SOL price should have ‘easily’ cleared this ‘soft resistance’, but failed because retail wasn’t buying and institutions were manipulating the market.

Solana (SOL) price was up at around 4% intraday, even though it was near $141, the level Khabib highlighted yesterday. The analyst is expecting another drop in price. Notably, yesterday’s US trading session saw SOL Spot ETFs break their 21-day streak of net inflows.

Meanwhile, GordonGecko, an X account that frequently provides price commentary, confidently claimed that SOL would hit $200 if $141 is conquered.

Although it is not supported by on-chain signals, the $200 target might not be far-fetched now that BTC has re-entered the $91,000 zone. BTC dipped to as low as $80,000 in the last two weeks. Also, institutions are not exactly giving clear signals.

Solana Spot ETF Posts Net Outflows in a First

On Wednesday, 21 Shares Solana ETF (TSOL) became the first SOL Spot ETF to post net outflows according to SoSoValue.

Subsequently, it broke the 21-day streak posted by SOL Spot ETFs that began trading on October 27th, 2025. ETFs do not trade on weekends and market holidays.

Net outflows for yesterday came in at $8.1 million.

The SOL Spot ETFs that posted net inflows yesterday include Bitwise (BSOL) ($13.33M), Grayscale (GSOL) ($10.42M), and Fidelity (FSOL) ($2.51M).

With $86.92M in Net Assets, TSOL is the third largest SOL Spot ETF, trailing only GSOL ($148.28M) and the largest BSOL ($631.2M).

Another major asset management firm that is looking to launch its SOL Spot ETF (Ticker: SOEZ) is the Franklin Solana ETF. Franklin filed the Fund’s prospectus on Tuesday.

Despite BTC re-surfacing above $90,000, fears of further capitulation are unlikely to be dispelled. The December Fed rate decision and the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy rate decision will significantly influence the crypto market.

The Fed’s FOMC decision will be announced on December 9th-10th, while the BOJ monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 18th-19th.