Bitcoin (BTC) Price: From Worst November Since 2019 to a Possible Year-End Rally

TLDR

• Bitcoin is down nearly 17% in November 2024, marking its worst November performance since 2019 and potentially since 2018
• Despite the monthly decline, analysts expect Bitcoin to recover in 2026 as overleveraged positions have been cleared out
• Bitcoin recovered above $91,000 after dropping to around $80,000, with traders seeing a 60% chance of reaching $100,000 by year-end
• Federal Reserve rate cut speculation drove the recent rally, with an 85% probability of a December rate cut anticipated by markets
• Key resistance levels sit between $92,000-$94,000, with major resistance at $106,000-$107,000 if Bitcoin continues its upward momentum

Bitcoin is heading toward its worst November performance in over five years. The cryptocurrency is down nearly 17% this month as it trades around $91,500.

This marks Bitcoin’s poorest November showing since 2019, when it lost 17.3% during the month. The only worse November performance came in 2018, when Bitcoin dropped 36.5% during the bear market that followed its 2017 peak.

Bitcoin last finished November in the red in 2022, losing 16.2% that month. November typically ranks as one of Bitcoin’s strongest months historically.

Crypto educator Sumit Kapoor noted that every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red. With just days left in the month and a slow Thanksgiving weekend approaching, a turnaround seems unlikely.

Federal Reserve Speculation Drives Recovery

Bitcoin has recovered above $91,000 after dropping to approximately $80,000. This represents a 12% bounce from recent lows.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that President Trump would likely announce his next Federal Reserve chair choice before Christmas. This news fueled speculation about monetary policy changes.

Markets now see an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, leading to expectations of a more dovish replacement.

Lower interest rates typically encourage investment in risk assets like Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has responded positively to this speculation alongside stock markets.

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said most crypto-native investors expect a predictable four-year cycle. Past patterns have led to rallies going into year-end, with October, November and December finishing positive.

He said the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US in early 2024 triggered the cycle early. This represents a change as institutions came in a meaningful way, altering the pace and timing of crypto price action.

Technical Levels and Market Activity

Technical analysts are watching Bitcoin’s monthly close carefully. A close above $93,000 would signal positive momentum heading into December.

Analyst CrediBull Crypto highlighted $93,401 as a key level to watch. A close above $102,437 would be extremely bullish but may need to wait until next month.

Bitcoin is currently above the $90,000 support level. The nearest resistance sits between $92,000 and $94,000.

If Bitcoin breaks through current resistance, the next target range sits between $98,000 and $101,000. A major resistance zone exists at $106,000 to $107,000.

Exchanges including Binance, Wintermute and Bybit purchased more than 10 billion worth of Bitcoin in five hours. This high-volume activity indicates continued institutional interest despite market volatility.

Liquidity has built up at key price points between $85,000 and $86,000. Reclaiming the $93,000 to $94,000 range would move Bitcoin closer to the $100,000 target.

The 90-day spot taker CVD has turned neutral, indicating reduced selling pressure. This trend could lead to a sustained rally if buying influence continues to increase.

Traders currently see a 60% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end. Bitcoin is trading at $91,600 at the time of writing after remaining flat over 24 hours.

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