Bitcoin Faces $7.5B Whale Inflow Pressure on Binance — Bear Market Next?

Recent data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin has seen a surge in whale inflows to Binance, reaching $7.5B sent to the centralized exchange over the past 30 days, the highest level ever recorded in a calendar year.

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn said the current spike in whale inflows is similar to patterns seen in March 2025, when Bitcoin moved from around $102K to the low $70K range.

“In those situations, whales typically send funds to exchanges either to take profit or to manage risk when the market weakens. With the 30-day inflow measure still climbing, the data does not yet suggest that selling pressure has stabilized,” he added.

For investors, this means the risk zone for Bitcoin has not fully cleared, and the market remains too fragile to determine whether a trend reversal is imminent or if Bitcoin will continue visiting the lows to trigger a long-term bear market.

Bitcoin November Crash Mirrors 2021 Bear Market, Not 2023 Dip

Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO at CryptoQuant, pointed out that “Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish, and further upside likely depends on macro liquidity.“

Expert Bitcoin and Commodities Investor G. Martín believes the $126,000 high in October has likely printed Bitcoin’s post-halving top, and the current move looks less like a dip and more like the start of a traditional bear market.

In his Substack post titled “Bitcoin is in a Bear Market,” Martín argued that the October 10 de-leveraging event, which saw $19 billion wiped from the crypto market, was more similar to the 2021-2022 early bear market stage rather than the 2023 bull market OI flush.

“We can clearly see how the trend is finally broken, and OI is starting to pick up again, which could mean traders are positioning for lower prices,” he said.

Martín added that the last two months, during which Bitcoin fell from $126k to $80k, show how much asset prices are driven by sentiment, greed, and fear, not just fundamentals.

He described Bitcoin as an asset with no cash flows whose price is mainly driven by liquidity and propelled by new narratives each cycle.

“Over the last six months, 95% of retail bought Bitcoin with an average cost of ~$115k, mostly during the ‘Crypto President Trump’ euphoria. Few stopped to consider that we had already gone through a +700% bull run over three years,” he said.

When BTC price was chopping around $100k, the narratives felt less like rational analysis and more like denial. “It seemed people weren’t truly bullish; instead, they were scared because their entry price was underwater,” Martín concluded.

Martín identified Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s MSTR mNAV as a vital indicator for a Bitcoin-led bear market, noting it’s now behaving similarly to the early stages of the 2021–2022 bear market.

Fed Rate Cuts Won’t Save Bitcoin -Analyst Warns

Martín also addressed the Fed rate cut expectation in December, which many view as bullish for a Bitcoin Santa rally as QT ends next week.

He explained that if the Fed reduces its balance sheet from long-term holdings, capital to buy these assets will come from the private sector, draining liquidity from markets.

“Rate cuts will be positive for the economy in general, but not necessarily bullish for Bitcoin,” he said.

He believes current Fed policies might end the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and see the asset bottom out in late 2026 when liquidity returns.

According to his analysis, Bitcoin must reclaim several major resistances after November’s selloff to mark a proper bottom around its 200-Week SMA before a bullish rally can resume.

In this scenario, Bitcoin might likely revisit the $73k or even $70k lows, followed by a relief rally toward $95k–$105k in the mid-term.