Rising Channel Hints at Ethereum Recovery

• ETH defends $3,000 for a third session as spot outflows drop to $27.3M.
• Intraday charts show buyers holding a rising channel with momentum improving above VWAP.
• Price rebounds from the long term $2,603 support, but major EMAs still cap the upside path.

Ethereum price today trades near $3,028 after defending the $3,000 level for a third straight session. The hold comes at a key point in the broader structure, as spot outflows ease and intraday charts show buyers maintaining control of a rising channel. The market is attempting to stabilize after a sharp November correction that pulled ETH off the $4,800 range and back into long term support.

Spot Outflows Ease As Sellers Lose Momentum

The latest Coinglass data shows net outflows of $27.32 million on November 28. That remains negative, but the scale is far smaller than the heavy distributions seen earlier in the month, where daily prints exceeded $150 million. Combined with improving derivatives positioning, the short term landscape carries more balance than it did a week ago.

The shift is visible on the chart. ETH has recovered above VWAP on the hourly timeframe, now trading consistently above $3,002. Price continues to respect the rising channel that has guided the rebound for four days. Each dip into the lower trendline has attracted buyers, and the upper trendline near $3,080 remains the first barrier for a continuation.

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RSI sits near 55 on the intraday timeframe, signaling constructive momentum without overextension. Bollinger bands show moderate compression, which supports the idea of a controlled recovery rather than an impulsive reversal.

ETH Holds Long Term Support Near $2,600

The larger structure shows the significance of this rebound. Ethereum recently retested the $2,603 support zone, a level that acted as a major pivot throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025. The correction found buyers exactly at this horizontal shelf, where high volume nodes cluster on the visible range profile.

The bounce from $2,603 aligns with a broader demand band that stretches into the $2,230 level. ETH has built multiple bases in this region over the past two years, making it a natural location for value buyers to reenter. The latest reaction strengthens that trend.

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Price remains below the daily EMA cluster, however. The 20 day EMA sits at $3,107, the 50 day at $3,449, the 100 day at $3,627, and the 200 day at $3,503. All of these levels form a wide ceiling that ETH must confront if it wants to shift from recovery to trend continuation.

Momentum remains neutral to cautious. The breakdown from the $4,800 zone was sharp, and the descending purple trendline still caps upside attempts. ETH needs a clean break above that trendline before buyers can build confidence in a larger reversal.

Derivatives Market Shows Gradual Improvement

Derivatives data reveals a subtle but important change. Open interest has declined 3.67 percent over the past 24 hours, falling to $35.86 billion. The drop in OI coincides with a reduction in leverage, which allows the market to reset after weeks of crowded positioning.

Options open interest has increased slightly by 0.64 percent. That signals traders are beginning to rebuild positions rather than unwind them. Options volume remains lower, but the shift in interest is constructive for stability.

Long to short ratios tilt bullish on major exchanges. Binance’s top trader long to short positions show a ratio of 2.94, while OKX sits at 1.75. The broader 24 hour ratio holds at 0.897, which is neutral, but top trader behavior shows accumulation on pullbacks.

Liquidation data confirms the slowdown in pressure. Only $1.82 million in total liquidations were recorded over the past hour, and the 12 hour window shows a modest $7.91 million. This is significantly lower than earlier in the week when liquidations spiked above $40 million during the heaviest part of the selloff.

Outlook. Will Ethereum Go Up?

The path forward hinges on whether ETH can reclaim the 20 day EMA and break the descending trendline.

• Bullish case: A close above $3,107 with strong volume opens a move toward $3,449 and then $3,627. That shift would confirm the recovery and allow price to challenge $3,823 next.
• Bearish case: A drop below $2,950 exposes $2,880 and $2,603, which would extend the corrective phase and delay any trend reversal.

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