4 US Economic Events That Could Flip Bitcoin’s Trend Overnight

The first week of December 2025 features critical US economic events that will influence monetary policy expectations and Bitcoin’s direction, as traders prepare for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) actions.

Bitcoin investors face a pivotal week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on December 1, coinciding with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT). With odds of a rate cut in December now at 86%, significant volatility is expected across risk assets.

Powell’s Speech and End of QT

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address markets on Monday, December 1, at 8:00 pm ET. This date marks not just his highly anticipated speech but also the official end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, an important policy shift announced by the FOMC in October.

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This decision reflects the presence of ample reserves in the banking system. Powell’s remarks come amid speculation about possible changes in Fed leadership, introducing another layer of market uncertainty.

Because Powell’s speech takes place just before the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the December policy meeting, it is likely to have outsized importance.

Any hints regarding future rates could trigger immediate market reactions. Ending quantitative tightening signals a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, possibly increasing dollar liquidity.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports indicate President Trump has selected Powell’s replacement, though there is no official announcement yet.

This speculation may boost volatility, as markets weigh the prospect of a new chair who could push for faster rate cuts.

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ADP Employment

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), the largest payroll processor in the US, is set to release the ADP Employment Change report for November, which measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US, at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday. 

The prior November report showed just 42,000 jobs added, according to MarketWatch’s economic calendar. New data will provide key insights into the health of the labor market ahead of the official government jobs numbers.

A strong employment figure could reduce chances of a rate cut and put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. In contrast, weak job growth would reinforce the case for Federal Reserve easing, which typically benefits crypto markets.

The colloquial AI bubble is expected to play a role in the US jobs report this week, even as different industry experts express their sentiment.

Labor statistics are crucial for the Fed’s dual mandate and guide policy decisions.

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Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims arrive on Thursday, December 4, at 8:30 am ET. As a weekly measure of layoffs, this report provides a real-time view of labor market conditions. It determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.

Rising claims may indicate economic weakness and support calls for easier monetary policy, while falling claims would suggest resilience and less urgency for rate cuts.

Historically, Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to employment releases since they shape Fed monetary outlooks and liquidity.

Traders often position ahead of these reports, generating increased volatility in both spot and derivatives markets.

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PCE Inflation Data

Friday, December 5, brings the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index at 8:30 am ET, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark.

This report is pivotal, as it tracks progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal. It will be released alongside personal income and spending data, providing a comprehensive view of consumer health.

Investors will focus on both headline and core PCE numbers. A softer reading could confirm the disinflation trend, solidifying expectations for a December rate cut.

Data from the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that interest bettors wager an 87.6% chance of a rate cut in the December 10 meeting, against a 12.4% chance that policymakers will hold steady.

Conversely, persistent inflation would prompt caution from the Fed, possibly disappointing markets looking for aggressive easing.

Consumer sentiment is reported at 10:00 am ET, with the prior value at 51.0 on the economic calendar. This data gauges household views on the economy and spending. Weakening sentiment can signal slowing demand and further support the case for easier monetary policy, which often lifts Bitcoin.

These four key economic releases in a single week create a high-stakes environment for digital asset markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets means macroeconomic news is likely to drive market direction more than crypto-specific events.

As the first week of December commences, the interplay between jobs data, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve’s stance will determine Bitcoin’s momentum and response to changing monetary policy signals.