Why Texas A&M’s Loss To Texas Could Be Their Playoff Break

The Texas A&M Aggies were one win away from their best season in program history.

If the Aggies were able to win their final game of the regular season, they would not only complete their second-ever 12-win season, but they would also have a chance to win the SEC Championship for the first time since joining the conference.

Instead, the desperate Texas Longhorns defeated A&M in one of the highlights of Rivalry Weekend.

Now, despite leading the division all season, A&M will drop from first to third in conference standings, despite the three teams all finishing 7-1 in SEC play.

Texas A&M finished 7–1 in SEC play, but they lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the team that won their division. Because the SEC breaks ties by direct matchup first, that single loss keeps the Aggies out of the conference title game.

With debates surrounding the importance of Conference Championship games due to the new College Football playoff format, there may be a silver lining for A&M’s unfortunate end to the regular season.

Based on current projections, the top-four seeds that would receive a first-round bye would be Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, and Texas Tech.

Even though the top-two seeds will play one another in the Big Ten Championship, it is unlikely that the losses of this game would drop low enough to not still receive the bye.

So, the #5 to #7 seeds would consist of the remaining 11-1 teams: Oregon, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M.

Oregon and Ole Miss were log-jammed out of a conference championship bid due to their one losses, so the aspirations for a bye were out of sight for these programs.

For A&M, however, the mentality could be that their bye week is just coming a week early.

If A&M were to face Alabama, there would be little National Championship implications to the game.

The SEC is currently projected to send five teams to the playoffs. So, the top two seeds do not have to worry about their ticket to the dance.

So, instead of risking injury and showing offensive and defensive film in a game that will not help their National Championship journey, why not take two weeks to prepare to play the #11 or #12 seed in the playoffs?

The #11 and #12 seeds in the playoff would likely be the last at-large bid and the fifth Conference winner.

Between the #5, #6, and #7 seeds, the Aggies have the best argument for the #5 honor.

Oregon has the most impressive loss of the group (Indiana); however, A&M has the highest-ranked win against Notre Dame.

They also have four impressive road victories, including the Irish, Arkansas, LSU, and Missouri.

Oregon’s best win this year was at home against USC, but after their loss at Penn State, they lost most of their credibility.

Ole Miss may have a better argument for the #5 seed than Oregon, with its sole loss coming in a shootout against Georgia, and its most impressive victory coming against Oklahoma on the road.

However, the loss of Lane Kiffin as Head Coach will likely work against the Rebels’ ability to move up.

So, A&M now has an additional week to gameplan for a team like North Texas or James Madison, instead of Alabama on seven days’ notice.

If they were to win, they would take on the #4 seed, which is likely to be Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders also finished 11-1, however, with a significantly easier schedule than Texas A&M.

According to ESPN, the Aggies had the third-toughest schedule in college football, where the Red Raiders finished 10th.

Their biggest win of the year was a dominant victory at home against BYU, with their only loss being on the road to Arizona State.

Despite being the higher seed, A&M would likely be favored in this matchup, thus giving them an ideal path to the semifinals.

The alternative is what the Georgia Bulldogs are looking to complete.

Georgia will face off against Alabama in the SEC Championship, hoping to hold onto a top-four seed.

Even if Georgia were to win the SEC crown, they would follow up their bye week with a date against the winner of Oregon and whoever has the ACC championship.

For a team looking to be rewarded for winning its division, the current College Football Playoff bracket may be putting these teams in a worse position.

While this is improved compared to last year, the current format may be leading to the end of conference championship games.

It is difficult to incentivize a concept that used to be the determining factor in reaching the National Championship.

Now, with the increased playoff field, the games lack any elimination stakes, except for the conferences on the bubble.

For the SEC and Big Ten, losing on a tiebreaker is now the best place that a team can be, and that is what Texas A&M has in front of them.