Opec+ pauses oil output hikes to regain market share

Opec+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share due to fears of a looming supply glut.

The meeting of Opec+, which pumps half of the world’s oil, comes during a fresh US effort to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could add to oil supply if sanctions on Russia are eased.

If the peace deal fails, Russia could see its supply curbed by further sanctions.

Opec+ groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia.

Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15 percent this year.

“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” said Jorge Leon, a former Opec official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

Eight Opec+ members have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) into the market since April 2025, and Sunday’s meeting reaffirmed that decision, Opec said in a statement.

Opec+ still has about 3.24 million bpd of output cuts in place, representing around 3 percent of global demand. Sunday’s meetings did not alter those.

These comprise a 2 million bpd oil output cut by most members which is in place until the end of 2026, and the remaining 1.24 million bpd of a 1.65 million bpd reduction that the eight members started to return to the market in October.

Opec said the Opec+ group had approved a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity to be used for setting output baselines from 2027, against which members’ output targets are set.

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The assessment will be done between January and September 2026, sources said after the meetings, in time for 2027 output quotas to be decided.

One company will assess capacity of 19 of the 22 Opec+ members, the sources said. Capacity in countries that are under sanctions will be assessed either by a separate company or by using an average of their oil output figures for August through October 2026.

Among the Opec+ members, Russia, Iran and Venezuela are under Western sanctions.

Opec+ has been discussing the production capacity and quotas issue for years. It has proved difficult because some members such as the UAE have increased capacity and want higher quotas.

Other members, such as some African countries, have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas.