Zcash is down about 21% in the past 24 hours and has now extended its seven-day loss to almost 33%. The monthly trend has also flipped negative. Even then, the broader three-month Zcash price gain still sits above 780%, which shows how strong the previous rally was.
Right now, Zcash is trading inside a bullish pattern that has guided every major move since September. The price has just touched the lower trend line of this channel. This is the last strong support that keeps the long-term uptrend alive. Two internal metrics hint that the selling pressure may be fading, but ZEC must protect that critical line for any recovery.
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Momentum Weakens, but Pressure May Be Easing
The first clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. Between September 27 and December 1, the price formed a higher low, while RSI formed a lower low. This is hidden bullish divergence and often appears near exhaustion points.
RSI is now close to the oversold zone. The last time RSI came this low — around August 19 — ZEC started a new leg up soon after.
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The second clue comes from CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), which tracks whether big-money flows are entering or exiting the market.
CMF had been falling since November 6, the same period when the price corrected sharply. CMF slipped below zero on November 24 for the first time since late October, and that drop aligned with heavier selling. But CMF has now curled up and is heading back toward the zero line.
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Money Flow Weakens: TradingViewThat matters because CMF is also showing a small divergence. Between November 27 and December 1, the price made a lower high while CMF made a higher high. When CMF is turning up while the price falls, it suggests large buyers may be preparing to re-enter. If CMF breaks above zero and moves past the descending trend line drawn across recent lower highs, ZEC could see momentum shift back in its favor.
Both signals only matter if the lower channel support of the channel continues to hold.
Correlation Shift and Key Zcash Price Levels That Decide the Trend
Zcash’s earlier rally was helped by its weak or slightly negative correlation with Bitcoin. Over the past year, the BTC–ZEC correlation sits near –0.05. This helped ZEC outperform during Bitcoin weakness.
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BTC-Zcash (Yearly Correlation): DeFillamaBut in the past seven days, the correlation has turned mildly positive at 0.48. It is still weaker than most major coins, meaning ZEC can still move differently, but it also means Bitcoin’s drop has pulled ZEC down harder in the short term.
BTC-Zcash (Monthly Correlation): DeFillamaBecause of this shift, the price levels now matter even more:
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ZEC is sitting just above $348, the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A daily close below $348 breaks the trend line and opens a move toward $309. If $309 fails, the next major support sits at $230, where buyers previously stepped in strongly.
Zcash Price Analysis: TradingViewA dip under $230 could expose new lows, which even crypto pioneer Max Keiser believes:
For the Zcash price to regain strength, it must reclaim $592, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That move would require a rebound of about 63.9% from current levels — large, but not unusual for ZEC given its past swings.
If CMF keeps turning up and the long-term negative BTC correlation plays out, Zcash could still protect the channel and extend the broader uptrend. But losing $348 flips the entire structure and ends the bullish case at least for now.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/zcash-price-critical-level-rebound-or-breakdown/
