Prediction markets are coming to your brokerage

If you open your brokerage this year and a “Markets” tab seems to be sprouting unfamiliar yes/no questions (“Will the Fed cut rates in March?”, “Will a major ETF get approved this quarter?”), you wouldn’t necessarily be hallucinating. The recent regulatory green-light for Polymarket via a cleared path under its newest acquisition of an exchange and its clearinghouse means those kinds of event-contracts might soon appear inside mainstream trading apps.

Meanwhile, a court in Nevada has tightened the lines around what counts as “financial trading” vs. “gambling,” complicating the view on sports or athlete-based markets.

Prediction markets plug into brokerage

Polymarket’s comeback doesn’t arrive on the strength of hype or speculation alone. Earlier this year, the firm acquired QCX LLC and QC Clearing, entities already licensed under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That maneuver laid a firm regulatory foundation for their bold expansion plans.

In September 2025, the CFTC then issued a no-action letter that provided relief to QCX/QC Clearing under certain recordkeeping and reporting exemptions for event contracts. That relief effectively restored a legal avenue for Polymarket to serve US customers under the traditional exchange and clearing framework.

Finally, in late November 2025, Polymarket received an “Amended Order of Designation,” formally permitting it to operate in the US as a regulated exchange. Under this order, brokerages and futures commission merchants (FCMs) can list and clear Polymarket contracts.

That path is critical, as it launches Polymarket from a niche, quasi-black-market website into the orbit of mainstream finance, meaning familiar apps your friends use for stocks or ETFs could theoretically integrate these event-based bets.

Brokers won’t need to build entirely new infrastructure to enable the well-loved and frequently-used prediction markets we know in crypto; they just tap into existing derivatives clearing and custody rails. It slots into what’s already there for everything from user experience to back-office plumbing. For someone casually checking markets, including portfolio values, yield products, and crypto quotes, a binary prediction contract could soon appear as just another instrument.

Betting or hedging? The fine, fine, fine shifting line

That said, not all event markets travel the same regulatory terrain. Federal approval doesn’t equal universal acceptance. A freshly issued ruling from a judge in Nevada has cast a sharp shadow over sports- or athlete-based prediction contracts, even on platforms run by federally regulated exchanges such as Kalshi.

In a November 2025 decision, US District Judge Andrew Gordon found that sports-outcome contracts are not “swaps” under the federal law that governs derivatives (the “Commodity Exchange Act”). That means they fall outside the CFTC’s regulatory domain, exposing them instead to state gambling laws, even if offered through a CFTC-designated exchange.

One consequence of that is that the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) has clearly stated that sports event contracts constitute wagering activity under state law, regardless of whether a platform is federally registered.

That disconnect splits prediction markets into two broad classes:
Macro, political, financial-policy bets (rates, CPI, earnings, elections): These retain a good claim to federal oversight and may flow through brokerages generally unimpeded.

Sports, prop bets, athlete outcomes: These run into a patchwork of state gambling regimes. States such as Nevada may block their availability entirely or subject them to licensing requirements that many prediction platforms may not satisfy.

So even as Polymarket readies its relaunch, what appears in your brokerage might depend heavily on your state.

What this means if you trade on your phone

You might soon scroll past “Stocks,” “Crypto,” and “Options,” and find binary yes/no contracts on macroeconomic events (e.g., rate decisions, inflation surprises), earnings beats, or even political outcomes.

These differ from traditional options as payout is all-or-nothing (or fixed fraction), with clearly defined maximum loss (the amount invested), but possibly higher take-rates by the platform.
Liquidity could be thin, especially early on, and price swings may feel jumpier than a well-traded stock or even a popular option.

If you live in a state that deems “sports/event contracts = gambling,” such instruments might be geofenced or blocked entirely. Brokerages and FCM partners may need to implement KYC/AML, suitability checks, and state-level compliance.

The outlook: steady bets, fractured states

What could success look like for Polymarket and other event-contract platforms?

If enough brokerages integrate via QCX/QC Clearing rails, and focus remains on macro, policy, or finance events rather than sports or prop bets, the model might flourish. Election cycles, central-bank decisions, regulatory headlines, and macro inflection points naturally generate demand for binary outcome bets. People want to hedge uncertainty or stake conviction, and binary contracts meet that itch cleanly.

Yet the fractured legal landscape remains a wildcard. Nevada’s ruling may embolden other states to assert even more jurisdiction over sports-outcome contracts. That would force platforms to design around state-by-state restrictions, geofence certain event categories, or build compliance, rather than assume universal access.

Meanwhile, traditional bookmakers and sportsbooks might not cede ground easily. From their perspective, prediction markets represent competitive pressure on sports-betting revenue. A regulatory or legal pushback could win favor with incumbent stakeholders.

For casual users, especially those who log into their brokerage app without much fanfare, event contracts could become a new frontier: a hybrid between market speculation and betting. The financial-market rails offer structure, limits, and clearing. The state-by-state overlay imposes hurdles, especially around sports. What emerges might be a narrow but growing corridor, where macro and political wagers are delivered through familiar apps, while more controversial sports or props stay fringe or blocked.

When you tap “Markets” in your brokerage app and see a binary contract on “Will the central bank raise rates next meeting?,” it might no longer be a fringe novelty. It could be part of an expanding offering that’s shaped by federal rulings, strategic acquisitions, and shifting regulatory boundaries.