The Atlanta Hawks Have A Trae Young Conundrum On Their Hands

Ever since the Atlanta Hawks acquired Trae Young in a draft-day trade in 2018, they’ve revolved around him. He rewarded them with four All-Star nods and an unexpected run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, but they haven’t won a single playoff series in the four years since.

Young, who’s in the final guaranteed year of his contract, was eligible to sign an extension this past summer. However, the Hawks showed little interest in giving him one ahead of the season. Young proceeded to sprain the MCL in his right knee in late October and hasn’t played since.

In Young’s absence, the Hawks have gone 11-6 and have the 10th-best net rating in the NBA over that span. It’s not as though they’re solely feasting on bottom-feeders, either. They’ve picked up impressive wins over the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers sans Young, and they lost a squeaker to the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons on Monday.

The more success that the Hawks have with Young sidelined, the more it may raise questions about his long-term future in Atlanta.

Can Young Adapt To The New-Look Hawks?

Young has routinely ranked among the league leaders in usage rate in recent years, and the Hawks have boasted an above-average offense in each of the past five seasons. However, they’ve been 19th or worse in points allowed per possession every year since 2021-22.

Those things are interconnected.

Young is an offense unto himself. No one has averaged more than his 9.8 career assists per game since he made his NBA debut in 2018. Combine that with his career average of 25.2 points per game, and it’s clear why the Hawks have leaned on him as their offensive engine.

However, Young’s 6’2″, 164-pound frame makes him a glaring target on defense. It’s no coincidence that the Hawks boast the league’s sixth-best defensive rating this season in his absence. That’s less of an issue in the regular season, but when teams have the time to construct opponent-specific game plans in the playoffs, it could become the Hawks’ Achilles’ heel.

For now, the question when Young returns is whether he can adapt to the new-look roster—specifically Jalen Johnson’s ongoing breakout.

The Hawks have been more egalitarian since Young’s injury, although Johnson has become the focal point of their offense. In Young’s absence, he’s averaging 23.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 53.0% overall and 44.4% from three-point range. When Young returns, the Hawks should still prioritize feeding Johnson with touches rather than reverting to a heliocentric offense that revolves around their star point guard.

“I’m willing to give up the ball,” Young told ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk prior to his injury. “It’s just you have to have the guys that are out there that want the ball first to make a play, and two, that can draw certain attention when they do get the ball. I feel like we got that now.”

Johnson isn’t the only Hawk who’s having a career year. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, whom the Hawks signed to a four-year, $60.6 million contract in a sign-and-trade this past offseason, had never averaged more than 11.0 points per game in his first six NBA seasons. He’s averaging 20.4 points, 3.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds in only 32.8 minutes per game this year while shooting a career-best 46.6% overall and 39.2% from deep.

Having weapons like Johnson and Alexander-Walker who can run the offense should lead to more off-ball looks for Young. It’s still an open question of whether he can capitalize on those, though. Efficiency has never been a hallmark of his aside from the 2021-22 season, which increasingly looks like an outlier.

Should The Hawks Consider Trading Young?

Young is set to be re-evaluated around mid-December, so the Hawks might have at least a month to see how he meshes with Johnson and their offseason acquisitions before the NBA’s Feb. 5 trade deadline arrives. That may be an organizational fork in the road.

The Hawks have to decide whether they envision a long-term future with Young or if they’re better off allocating his $45-plus million salary slot elsewhere. That may come down to how he fares upon his return from his injury and his willingness to take less than the five-year, $288.8 million max contract that he’ll be eligible for as a free agent.

Johnson just began a five-year, $150 million deal that pays him $30 million flat each year. That’s already looking like one of the best-value contracts in the entire NBA. The Hawks also signed Dyson Daniels to a four-year, $100 million extension ahead of the rookie-scale deadline in October, which is set to kick in next season.

If Young walks as a free agent next summer, the Hawks could have significant cap space. However, taking advantage of that cap room might preclude them from re-signing Kristaps Porziņģis and/or Luke Kennard, both of whom are set to become unrestricted free agents as well.

Alternatively, the Hawks could look to re-sign Young with the intention of trading him down the line. The danger there is if they lock him into a long-term contract that deters other teams’ interest in him down the road.

The Hawks also have a wild card to consider after they sent the No. 13 pick to the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2025 draft for the No. 23 pick and the better of the Pelicans or Milwaukee Bucks’ fully unprotected 2026 first-round picks. After their overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night, the Pelicans are now 3-19, which is the worst record in the NBA.

The 2026 draft class is projected to have at least a few franchise-cornerstone-caliber players in Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybantsa. None of them are point guards, so the Hawks would still have a void to fill there if they got rid of Young, but all three would be on cost-controlled, rookie-scale contracts for the remainder of the decade. Being able to build around one of that trio and Johnson could give the Hawks a fresh start that should make them appealing to other up-and-coming stars.

The Hawks won’t know which pick they’re getting from that trade until mid-May, so they won’t be guaranteed any of Peterson, Boozer or Dybantsa if they flip Young at the trade deadline. Having that pick in their back pocket could factor into their decision-making, though. With Zion Williamson now out indefinitely due to an adductor injury, the Pelicans figure to stay in the Western Conference basement all season.

If the Hawks aren’t willing to give Young a max contract and he’s unwilling to settle for less, they may have to seriously consider flipping him for whatever they can get at the trade deadline. He might not fetch a huge haul since he could be a two-month rental for whichever team acquires him, but that might beat losing him for nothing. The Hawks could always gamble on Young not fetching a max offer in free agency, although the current leaguewide cap-space landscape makes that unlikely.

The Hawks effectively have two months to figure out whether Young still has a long-term future in Atlanta. Their promising play without him may be eye-opening in that regard.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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