Why The Thunder’s Hot Start Is Built To Last

You can easily find a number of NBA teams that have started the season hot and at some point fell off a cliff. Whether it was unsustainable shooting, injuries to key players, or opposition teams figuring out a style of play they could defend, we’ve witnessed sudden surges that quickly evaporate.

We’ve hit the first quarter of the season milestone and the Oklahoma City Thunder look supreme. The reigning champions have picked up where they left off from last year and are almost robotic in their method at this point. The 21-1 record on the back of 13 straight wins says they are the team to beat this year. But if you sift through the data and watch how the roster embraces the schemes, this system they have built suggests what they are doing is more than some one-off early season heater.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Sets the Standard

Every night Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be clutch and is the spark that sends life through the rest of the roster and everything they do. What we’re seeing is his elite midrange game is continuing to be a nightmare to defend. When you talk about shot profile, the Thunder plan around the space that Gilgeous-Alexander operates in. He’s averaging 32.5 per night – ranked second in the NBA behind Luka Doncic – on 54.5 percent from the field. He’s also going 88.7 percent from the charity stripe this season which is on pace with Jordan (83.5) and Kobe (83.7).

“As the games go on, as the years go on, the game just continues to slow down for me,” Gilgeous-Alexander told the media.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s presence sets the tone for the Thunder and the results have reflected it. In 22 games, the Thunder have pulverized weaker teams like the Jazz by 32, the Kings by 31 and Pelicans by 31. They also put daylight between them and the Warriors, beating them by 24 in early November, the Lakers by 29, and the Trailblazers by 27.

There’s a glut of numbers that tell us the Thunder are a huge problem for the rest of the NBA. The team ranks first in net rating (15.2), first in defensive efficiency and they keep opposition teams to a stingy 106.7 per game which is the best in the NBA. They are fourth for shot quality. They own a winning margin of 15.4 per game – three more than last season (12.8). The next best team is the 1971 Lakers with 12.2. And the Thunder are ranked third for points per game with 122.2.

A System Built For the Long Haul

To understand how they are operating at such an elite level this early in the season, you have to look at what Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is doing with his roster. He is using almost everyone at his disposable to mashup his lineup at every possible turn during games. It’s a conscious effort to keep teams guessing. The Oklahoma bench has been impressive. They are ranked 5th in bench scoring with 827. In 22 games, the Thunder have used 13 players who average 10 or more minutes per game and because of that trust and opportunity the role players are paying Daigneault back with consistent efforts.

Ajay Mitchell is having a breakout season averaging 15.2 points per game in 26.5 minutes, the third-leading scorer behind Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander. Aaron Wiggins (13.8) and Isaiah Joe (13.1) are offering solid returns on the back of sharp shooting at 46.1 percent and 44.8 from the field; Joe is the best three-point shooter on the team with 46 threes made going at 40.7 percent.

The Thunder’s long-term outlook is daunting. They are running over teams with one of the youngest rosters in the NBA (average age 24.5). They have shown a maturity beyond their years, only giving up 12.5 turnovers per game (the second least). And considering that, for the most part, Jalen Williams and Lu Dort have watched on in street clothes, it’s scary to think they have more talent at their disposal.

For teams looking to replicate what the Thunder are doing, they need to analyze how Sam Presti has assembled this team. It was never about grabbing the NBA’s finest. The league loves star-laden rosters and heavy contracts. Presti already tried that with the “big three” in Kevin Durant, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. This particular rebuild for the current team was a seven-year project that kicked off with the Paul George trade for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Since 2019 they added Lu Dort, then Kenrich Williams (2020), Aaron Wiggins (2021), Isaiah Joe, Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams (2022), Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace (2023), and finally Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein and Ajay Mitchell last year. Next year they have three first round picks – two inside the Top 10 – in a draft that includes AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. What Presti built was a long list of players with certain skills that can play multiple roles within a sustainable style of play.

Win projections have media and Thunder fans hyping them up. Some platforms have cited 78 wins for the Thunder. According to Team Rankings, they’ve got Oklahoma at 68 wins. A lot can happen in the next 56 games. Injuries can change the complexion of their season very quickly. Form can flounder. They also face 10 tough matchups in January against Denver, Houston, Cleveland, Orlando, and Minnesota. And what about a championship hangover?

Even with those obstacles, stopping the Thunder in their tracks seems impossible. Reducing Gilgeous-Alexander to less than 20 every night is fine, but, how do you stop the wave of other scorers that would replace him? And therein lies the problem for the rest of the NBA. As much as they can try to punch holes in one or two players’ performances, it’s not going to slow them down. They keep generating new problems to solve.

In early November the Warriors got blown out by the Thunder by 24 points. Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 28 on 47 percent shooting from the field and collected 11 assists. Draymond Green spoke to the media post game about the Canadian All-Star and the similarities he possesses to that of Steph Curry during his Championship runs.

“When you have a leader that has that commitment to excellence day in and day out that Shai does, everyone else has to fall in line,” he said. “They’re doing that, and it’s special to watch. That’s a level of excellence in order to reach the [championship] over and over again that you must have, and they got that.”

There’s no definitive way of knowing whether the Thunder can keep up this kind of pace across 82 games. The fact is, they will lose games. Adversity will come for them. But with Gilgeous-Alexander’s killer step back mid-range shot, the team’s scoring depth, roster continuity, and with Daigneault constantly slicing up and adapting plays and lineups in real time, the Thunder has the most durable formula in the modern NBA that is built to last.