The post ‘Basis Trade’ Unwind, Not Capitulation, Led to Recent $4B ETF Outflows appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin BTC$92,314.32 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw billions in outflows in recent weeks amid a 35% price plunge from $125,000 to the low $80,000s, sparking talk of institutional capitulation. Yet data analysis by Amberdata presents a far more nuanced picture: concentrated redemptions from “basis trade,” or arbitrage bets closures, not broad panic across ETFs, with total holdings staying robust at 1.43 million BTC. “Nearly $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows since mid-October. Price collapsed from $125,000 to the low $80,000s – a 35% drawdown that erased six months of gains. The prevailing interpretation: institutions had arrived, seen enough, and were leaving,” Michael Marshall, head of research at Amberdata, said in a report. “The selling, however, was highly concentrated among a few issuers and tied to a mechanical basis trade unwind, not broad investor fear,” Marshall added. What capitulation? Capitulation in financial markets occurs when sellers exhaust themselves after prolonged declines, typically marked by panic selling, high volume, and extreme fear indicators. In the ETF context, true capitulation would entail broad selling across issuers and massive redemptions. But that wasn’t the case over the past two months. Marshall noted that BlackRock dominated 97%-99% of more recent weekly outflows despite holding only 48-51% of assets under management while Fidelity FBTC registered inflows and other smaller ETFs held steady. Meanwhile, over the full 53-day window from Oct. 1 to Nov. 26, Grayscale bled $923 million, which is 53.2% of total gross outflows, followed by 21Shares and Grayscale Mini. Together, these three accounted for 89.1% of outflows. By contrast, BlackRock and Fidelity registered inflows. This dual framing underscores the point: no widespread capitulation, but targeted unwinds. The day-to-day fluctuations in ETF fund flows were highly variable, with a standard deviation of $372 million compared to an average daily flow of $27 million. Targeted… The post ‘Basis Trade’ Unwind, Not Capitulation, Led to Recent $4B ETF Outflows appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin BTC$92,314.32 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw billions in outflows in recent weeks amid a 35% price plunge from $125,000 to the low $80,000s, sparking talk of institutional capitulation. Yet data analysis by Amberdata presents a far more nuanced picture: concentrated redemptions from “basis trade,” or arbitrage bets closures, not broad panic across ETFs, with total holdings staying robust at 1.43 million BTC. “Nearly $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows since mid-October. Price collapsed from $125,000 to the low $80,000s – a 35% drawdown that erased six months of gains. The prevailing interpretation: institutions had arrived, seen enough, and were leaving,” Michael Marshall, head of research at Amberdata, said in a report. “The selling, however, was highly concentrated among a few issuers and tied to a mechanical basis trade unwind, not broad investor fear,” Marshall added. What capitulation? Capitulation in financial markets occurs when sellers exhaust themselves after prolonged declines, typically marked by panic selling, high volume, and extreme fear indicators. In the ETF context, true capitulation would entail broad selling across issuers and massive redemptions. But that wasn’t the case over the past two months. Marshall noted that BlackRock dominated 97%-99% of more recent weekly outflows despite holding only 48-51% of assets under management while Fidelity FBTC registered inflows and other smaller ETFs held steady. Meanwhile, over the full 53-day window from Oct. 1 to Nov. 26, Grayscale bled $923 million, which is 53.2% of total gross outflows, followed by 21Shares and Grayscale Mini. Together, these three accounted for 89.1% of outflows. By contrast, BlackRock and Fidelity registered inflows. This dual framing underscores the point: no widespread capitulation, but targeted unwinds. The day-to-day fluctuations in ETF fund flows were highly variable, with a standard deviation of $372 million compared to an average daily flow of $27 million. Targeted…