Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail MARA Trades at a Premium Factoring Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail MARA Trades at a Premium Factoring

MARA Trades at a Premium Factoring in Its Debt, Not a Discount: VanEck’s Sigel

2025/12/05 23:38
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

MARA Trades at a Premium Factoring in Its Debt, Not a Discount: VanEck’s Sigel

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel argues MARA’s valuation looks expensive when adjusted for its leverage and capital structure.

By James Van Straten|Edited by Oliver Knight
Updated Dec 5, 2025, 3:38 p.m. Published Dec 5, 2025, 3:38 p.m.
MARA (TradingView)

What to know:

  • VanEck’s Matthew Sigel argues once you account for MARA's $3.3 billion in convertible debt, it's net bitcoin value sits near $1.6 billion, which means the stock trades at a premium rather the perceived discount to its bitcoin holdings, with a $4.7 billion market cap.
  • Sigel says much of MARA’s short interest and volatility stems from its capital structure, making it a far less direct bitcoin proxy compared to Strategy (MSTR).

The two largest publicly traded companies holding bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA), have each fallen roughly 40% over the past six weeks.

CoinDesk Research has extensively covered the MSTR correction, but MARA, which is down 55% year over year, is also attracting attention as some investors view it as inexpensive at current levels.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, argues that the perception of MARA as cheap is not supported by the data. Sigel argues that the company is actually trading at a premium to it's bitcoin holdings and not a discount.

Sigel highlights MARA's $3.3 billion in outstanding convertible debt relative to its $4.9 billion in bitcoin holdings. Adjusting for the convertible debt leaves just $1.6 billion of net bitcoin value before accounting for any additional liabilities that the mining business incurs.

That compares with a $4.7 billion equity market cap, which Sigel implies that MARA is in fact trading at a premium once debt is included, rather than at a discount to its bitcoin holdings.

Sigel also addresses MARA’s high short interest, which currently stands at 27%. After adjusting for delta hedging related to the company’s convertible notes, Sigel estimates that true short interest falls to about 15%, a reduction of 44%.
Sigel contrasts this with MSTR, which has more than $8 billion of convertible debt, compared to a $53 billion market cap.

Once hedge related shorts are removed, MSTR’s short interest declines by only 31%, or by roughly 9 million shares. Sigel characterizes MARA’s short interest as more structural, compared with MSTR’s which he frames as more fundamentals driven.

Sigel argues that over half of MARA’s equity volatility stems from its capital structure and financing dynamics rather than from pure bitcoin beta. He concludes that MSTR offers a much cleaner bitcoin duration exposure, while MARA’s mining equity performance is dominated by what he describes as a problematic capital structure.

MarathonBitcoin NewsMicroStrategy

More For You

Protocol Research: GoPlus Security

Commissioned byGoPlus

What to know:

  • As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
  • GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
  • Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
View Full Report

More For You

Has the DAT Bubble Already Burst? CoinShares Says In Many Ways, Yes.

Digital-asset treasury plays that once traded at big premiums have fallen back toward net asset value.

What to know:

  • CoinShares said the DAT bubble has deflated, with some names dropping from 3x–10x mNAV in summer 2025 back to around 1x or below.
  • The near-term path splits between a disorderly sell-off and a hold-and-recover, with CoinShares head of research James Butterfill leaning toward the latter on improving macro and possible Dec. rate cuts.
  • The longer-term fix is structural: less dilution and concentration, clearer category lines, and more credible businesses using digital assets as treasury tools rather than the whole story, the report said.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News

Has the DAT Bubble Already Burst? CoinShares Says In Many Ways, Yes.

The Dollar Is Crumbling. Fiat-Backed Stablecoins Are Next

European Crypto Scam Network Dismantled After Laundering $815M

Strategy Stock Still a Buy at Cantor After Plunge Forces Major Price Target Cut

Crypto Sector Lit Up Bright Red as Bitcoin Slips Back to $90K

CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Index Falls 1.5% as Nearly All Constituents Decline

Top Stories

Crypto Sector Lit Up Bright Red as Bitcoin Slips Back to $90K

Here's How Much Bitcoin, XRP, Ether, Solana May Move on Friday's Inflation Report

Switch to Long-Term Thinking: Crypto Daybook Americas

BlackRock’s IBIT Faces Record Outflow Run as Bitcoin Struggles to Reclaim Bull Trend

Polymarket Hiring In-House Team to Trade Against Customers — Here's Why It's a Risk

Kraken Launches High-Touch VIP Program for Ultra High Net Worth Clients

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise

China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise

The post China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise China’s internet regulator has ordered the country’s biggest technology firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop purchasing Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D GPUs. According to the Financial Times, the move shuts down the last major channel for mass supplies of American chips to the Chinese market. Why Beijing Halted Nvidia Purchases Chinese companies had planned to buy tens of thousands of RTX Pro 6000D accelerators and had already begun testing them in servers. But regulators intervened, halting the purchases and signaling stricter controls than earlier measures placed on Nvidia’s H20 chip. Image: Nvidia An audit compared Huawei and Cambricon processors, along with chips developed by Alibaba and Baidu, against Nvidia’s export-approved products. Regulators concluded that Chinese chips had reached performance levels comparable to the restricted U.S. models. This assessment pushed authorities to advise firms to rely more heavily on domestic processors, further tightening Nvidia’s already limited position in China. China’s Drive Toward Tech Independence The decision highlights Beijing’s focus on import substitution — developing self-sufficient chip production to reduce reliance on U.S. supplies. “The signal is now clear: all attention is focused on building a domestic ecosystem,” said a representative of a leading Chinese tech company. Nvidia had unveiled the RTX Pro 6000D in July 2025 during CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Beijing, in an attempt to keep a foothold in China after Washington restricted exports of its most advanced chips. But momentum is shifting. Industry sources told the Financial Times that Chinese manufacturers plan to triple AI chip production next year to meet growing demand. They believe “domestic supply will now be sufficient without Nvidia.” What It Means for the Future With Huawei, Cambricon, Alibaba, and Baidu stepping up, China is positioning itself for long-term technological independence. Nvidia, meanwhile, faces…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 01:37
Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Share
Coinstats2025/09/18 02:25