As prediction markets shift from niche crypto projects into multi-billion-dollar exchanges, one controversial development is quietly taking shape: platforms are hiring traders to actively participate in their own markets.
According to people familiar with discussions cited by Bloomberg, Polymarket has begun sounding out professional bettors and traders — a signal it wants to build an in-house market-making desk capable of quoting prices and absorbing risk directly rather than relying solely on external market makers.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket is building an internal market-making desk, reportedly recruiting traders and bettors.
- Kalshi already operates a similar desk and faces a lawsuit alleging unfair pricing.
- The sector is booming, with volumes up 565% quarter-to-quarter.
Why Would an Exchange Trade on Its Own Platform?
Liquidity has become the defining challenge for prediction markets.
With user activity rising, contracts ranging from election outcomes to weather forecasts need deeper order books to function efficiently. That has prompted some exchanges to adopt the “be your own liquidity provider” approach.
Kalshi, Polymarket’s closest competitor, already runs a trading arm to seed markets with bids and offers. The model has not been universally welcomed — a class-action claim filed last month accused Kalshi of setting prices in ways unfavorable to customers. Nevertheless, the practice is spreading as platforms scramble to keep pace.
Externally, firms such as Susquehanna International Group have also stepped in as liquidity providers, illustrating that prediction markets now draw interest from sophisticated trading houses.
Regulatory History Is Still Casting a Shadow
Polymarket’s strategic shift comes shortly after it resolved a 2022 enforcement case with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which resulted in a $1.4 million penalty and restrictions on U.S. access.
The company is now re-expanding domestically after receiving permission to serve U.S. users again — a delicate backdrop in which launching a trading desk invites scrutiny.
The rapid rise of prediction markets has attracted commentary from mainstream finance leaders.
At The New York Times’ DealBook Summit, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong offered an unconventional take: he suggested that having insiders — people with privileged or expert knowledge — participate directly can actually improve outcome forecasting, since markets exist to extract accurate information.
By contrast, BlackRock chief Larry Fink dismissed the space as largely irrelevant to long-term investing, likening constant betting activity to wagering on every play in a football match — entertaining, perhaps, but not meaningful to those planning decades ahead.
A Lot of Money Is Moving Regardless of the Debate
Philosophical disagreement has not slowed adoption. Across the three biggest platforms, trading volume in the third quarter of 2024 jumped from $463 million to $3.1 billion, a 565% surge.
That kind of liquidity explosion explains why exchanges are racing to control — and possibly influence — their own markets.
Whether this evolution makes prediction markets fairer or more conflicted remains to be seen, but momentum suggests the industry is moving into a new phase where platforms are no longer just referees, but players on the field.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/polymarket-follows-kalshi-with-in-house-trading-desk/
