Bitcoin’s Realized Losses Echo FTX Levels Amid Surging ETF Outflows

• Bitcoin’s realized losses hit post-FTX highs, signaling intense selling pressure from recent buyers.

• Short-term holders are facing the brunt of the downturn, while long-term investors maintain steady positions.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $196 million in net outflows on December 5, with a 30-day total approaching $2.9 billion, per HeyApollo data.

Bitcoin ETF outflows surge amid macro tensions, echoing FTX-era losses. Explore how institutional withdrawals and realized losses are reshaping the market—stay informed on BTC’s next moves. (148 characters)

What Causes the Recent Surge in Bitcoin ETF Outflows?

Bitcoin ETF outflows are intensifying due to a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and shifting investor sentiment, pulling nearly $3 billion from spot funds over the last month. Strong U.S. employment data has delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin, which now correlates 0.82 with the Nasdaq index. This environment has prompted institutions to reduce exposure, with daily withdrawals reaching $196 million on December 5, as reported by market analysts.

How Do Realized Losses Compare to the FTX Collapse?

Blockchain analytics from Glassnode show Bitcoin’s realized losses climbing to their highest levels since the FTX downfall in November 2022, when over $100 billion in market value evaporated amid revelations of fraud at Alameda Research and Binance’s sale of FTT tokens. Unlike that event, which stemmed from a centralized exchange failure, current losses are more distributed, primarily affecting short-term traders who entered at recent peaks around $100,000. These holders are booking losses as prices dip below $91,000, with the metric indicating capitulation but not widespread panic among long-term participants.

The FTX crisis marked a turning point for cryptocurrency regulation and investor trust, leading to stricter oversight and a prolonged bear market. Today, while the scale of realized losses echoes that period—surpassing $1 billion in weekly terms—the drivers are external. Persistent inflation concerns, evidenced by upcoming Core PCE data, are amplifying volatility. Bitcoin’s price sensitivity to broader equities means any softening in tech sector performance directly impacts BTC. Experts at Glassnode note that this correlation has risen sharply over the past year, making Bitcoin less of a standalone asset and more intertwined with traditional markets.

Short-term holders, defined as those with coins aged under 155 days, represent the core of this selling wave. Their average entry price hovers around $95,000, forcing realizations of 5-10% losses as BTC trades near $90,750 after a 2% daily decline. In contrast, long-term holders—those with positions over 155 days—see unrealized profits exceeding 300% on average, insulating them from the current correction. This bifurcation highlights a maturing market where veteran investors weather storms that shake out newer entrants.

Institutional behavior is shifting notably through ETFs. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, once a leader in inflows, posted $114.7 million in outflows on December 5, followed by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund at $54.2 million and VanEck’s at $14.3 million. Over the week, net flows stand at a $73 million deficit, underscoring waning enthusiasm. HeyApollo’s tracking reveals this as the most severe 30-day withdrawal period since ETF approvals in January 2024, totaling close to $2.9 billion. Previously, these vehicles absorbed billions during bull runs, stabilizing prices; now, they exacerbate downside momentum.

Macro factors are central to this dynamic. Recent labor reports indicated jobless claims at multi-year lows, signaling a robust economy that reduces the urgency for monetary easing. Traders view this as a headwind for Bitcoin, which thrives on low interest rates and liquidity. The asset’s 0.82 correlation with the Nasdaq—up from 0.6 earlier in 2025—means Bitcoin mirrors declines in high-growth stocks, such as those in AI and semiconductors. As markets brace for Core PCE inflation figures, a higher-than-expected reading could extend the pressure, potentially pushing BTC toward $85,000 support levels.

Despite the turbulence, certain resilience emerges. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that exchange inflows remain moderate, not signaling mass liquidation. Long-term holder supply has held steady at around 14 million BTC, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamentals like its fixed supply and growing adoption in payments and remittances. Regulatory clarity in the U.S., including potential stablecoin frameworks, could provide a counterbalance if macro conditions ease.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Are the Main Drivers Behind Bitcoin ETF Outflows in December 2025?

Bitcoin ETF outflows in December 2025 stem from delayed rate cut expectations due to strong U.S. jobs data and rising correlations with tech stocks. Institutions are trimming risk exposure amid volatility, with $196 million exiting on December 5 alone. This reflects broader caution rather than crypto-specific issues, per data from HeyApollo and Glassnode. (48 words)

Is the Current Bitcoin Market Shake-Up as Severe as the FTX Collapse?

The current shake-up in Bitcoin, triggered by ETF outflows and realized losses, shares similarities with the FTX collapse in terms of loss magnitude but differs in cause. FTX involved fraud and contagion, while today’s pressures arise from macroeconomic tightening. Long-term holders remain unfazed, indicating a more contained impact that could resolve with positive inflation data. (52 words)

Key Takeaways

• Realized Losses Spike: Bitcoin’s on-chain realized losses match FTX-era peaks, driven by short-term trader capitulation, as tracked by Glassnode metrics.
• ETF Withdrawals Accelerate: Spot Bitcoin ETFs face $2.9 billion in 30-day outflows, with major funds like BlackRock and Fidelity leading the trend, per HeyApollo.
• Macro Sensitivity Heightens: A 0.82 Nasdaq correlation exposes BTC to equity downturns; monitor Core PCE for potential relief or further declines.

Conclusion

The surge in Bitcoin ETF outflows and elevated realized losses underscore a market navigating familiar turbulence akin to the FTX aftermath, yet shaped by macroeconomic forces. While short-term pressures test newer investors, long-term holders’ stability and Bitcoin’s institutional integration signal enduring strength. As inflation data unfolds, opportunities for recovery may emerge—investors should prioritize diversified strategies and stay attuned to Federal Reserve signals for informed positioning in this evolving landscape.