Polymarket $9 Billion Valuation Challenged Due to Double-Counted Trades Discovered

• Polymarket’s $9B valuation questioned after discovery of double-counted trades inflating reported activity.
• Paradigm researchers reveal “OrderFilled” events recorded twice, misleading analytics platforms on trade volumes.
• Complex on-chain actions like splits and merges further exaggerate apparent trading activity on Polymarket.

Polymarket is currently embroiled in a significant data controversy following the discovery by Paradigm researchers that its reported trading activity may be significantly higher than the actual number taking place on-chain.

This is due to a long-standing data issue in almost every analytics platform, which has been reporting Polymarket’s activity twice for the same trades, thereby inflating the platform’s activity number.

Polymarket Trades Double-Counted Issue

Paradigm researcher Storm explained the issue is unrelated to wash trading but to how the “OrderFilled” events in the smart contracts are recorded on Polymarket: “For every trade, two ‘OrderFilled’ events occur: one for the maker and one for the taker. Those events represent the same trade, but they’ve been reported to many analytics platforms as two trades.”

“It has been a pervasive issue across the board, and everyone from DefiLlama to Allium to Blockworks to various pages on Dune Analytics has been affected,” said Storm. “As a result, the two most important metrics for judging the health of prediction markets, the notional volume and the cash flow volume, are systematically overstated across the space.”

Polymarket’s complicated on-chain activity adds to the confusion. Trades can be simple swaps or more complex actions like splits and merges, which generate multiple events that look like separate trades but actually represent the same transaction. “It is difficult to interpret this structure using a basic blockchain explorer,” Storm said.

Polymarket Valuation Faces Scrutiny

This latest finding has plunged the rapid rise in Polymarket’s valuation into controversy. According to reports, this week, the company was valued at $9 billion by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), based on a total trading volume of $25 billion, but this value may turn out to be overstated in light of the fact that the company has apparently double-counted its trades.

Previously reported that Polymarket was gearing up to launch in the United States at a valuation of $10 billion, while Bloomberg indicated the company was weighing a fundraise ranging from $12 billion to $15 billion. Dune Analytics also reported a record-high trading volume of $3.7 billion in the month of November, that too appears to be exaggerated.

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Polymarket Volume Accuracy Questioned

Polymarket has recently been considered a great example of a platform in the crypto space that has managed to thrive in a period filled with turmoil in the entire sector. It is, however, a fact that has recently come to light that the highest trading volumes reported by most analytics platforms might be misreported.

The results from Paradigm emphasize the increasing need for standardized reporting in blockchain-based prediction markets. Given the ongoing popularity and economic significance of platforms such as Polymarket, the sector will face pressure to embrace a standardized structure for reporting.

According to the conclusion made by Storm, proper reporting plays a crucial role in the development of prediction markets, which will be an essential element in the digital asset space.

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