Global investors are closely tracking the December FOMC gathering, where a potential FED rate cut could set the tone for risk assets, including crypto, into 2026.
Key expectations for the December 2025 FOMC decision
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its final policy meeting of 2025 today, Dec. 9, and will conclude tomorrow, Dec. 10. As the last gathering of the year, it carries heightened significance for equities, bonds, and digital assets.
Investors will scrutinize the Federal funds rate decision, updated economic projections, and Fed chair Jerome Powell‘s press conference. Moreover, markets will look for signals on inflation, the labor market, and the broader policy path as the U.S. heads into 2026.
Probability of a 25-basis-point move and new projections
Futures markets currently imply an estimated 80% to 92% probability that the Fed delivers a 25-basis-point cut. That move would lower the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction this year.
However, traders acknowledge that even a small deviation, such as a pause or a surprise hike, could disrupt positioning and trigger swift volatility across traditional and crypto markets.
Beyond the headline rate decision, the Federal Reserve will publish its Summary of Economic Projections, including the widely watched dot plot. Analysts currently expect U.S. gross domestic product to grow about 2.1%, an unemployment rate near 4.2%, and core inflation close to 2.5%.
The new dot plot should clarify policymakers’ outlook for 2026, with consensus pointing to three or four additional cuts over the coming year. Moreover, Powell’s press conference on Dec. 10 at 2:30 p.m. ET will be critical for understanding the future pace of policy easing and any potential slowdown in quantitative tightening.
How the fed rate cut debate could shape crypto price action
Digital asset traders are bracing for a pronounced FOMC crypto reaction, as cryptocurrencies have historically responded sharply to shifts in U.S. monetary policy. More than $1 billion in open positions could face liquidation depending on how the Fed communicates its outlook.
At present, Bitcoin is consolidating in the $90,500–$91,500 band, while Ethereum trades near $3,100. If the Fed confirms a 25-basis-point cut alongside a dovish dot plot that outlines multiple reductions in 2026, liquidity conditions could improve materially.
In that scenario, the Bitcoin price forecast fed watchers are monitoring suggests the leading cryptocurrency could extend its rally toward the $92,000–$95,000 zone. That said, such an upside move might also unleash short-liquidation cascades exceeding $120 million, amplifying intraday volatility across major tokens.
Risks from a hawkish surprise and implications for altcoins
However, a so-called hawkish cut, or an unexpected decision to hold rates steady, could flip sentiment quickly. Profit-taking would likely emerge across speculative assets as traders adopt a more defensive, risk-off stance.
Under that outcome, Bitcoin could retreat toward the $88,000–$89,000 range, while pressure on altcoins would intensify. Moreover, Ethereum might slip below the $3,000 threshold, prompting further deleveraging in leveraged derivatives positions.
Positioning, sentiment, and the path into 2026
Despite elevated uncertainty, the market remains cautiously optimistic heading into the announcement. Retail traders show rising anxiety around potential crypto volatility FED shocks, yet institutional investors continue to accumulate exposure.
That divergence suggests that if policy and communication broadly match dovish market expectations, any post-FOMC pullbacks in Bitcoin or Ethereum may be viewed as fresh buying opportunities. Ultimately, how the FED balances inflation risks against growth concerns at this December meeting could define digital-asset trading conditions as 2026 approaches.
In summary, the combination of the rate decision, updated projections, and Powell’s messaging will be pivotal in shaping both macro sentiment and crypto performance, with traders preparing for sizeable price swings in the hours surrounding the announcement.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/12/09/fed-rate-cut-december-fomc/
