AMD Stock: Why Nvidia’s China Win Matters More for AMD

TLDR

• AMD shares rose 2% in after-hours trading Monday after Trump cleared Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China with 25% U.S. revenue cut
• Trump confirmed AMD, Intel, and other American chipmakers will receive identical export approval from Commerce Department
• Export restrictions implemented in 2024 blocked AMD from selling MI300 AI accelerators to Chinese buyers
• Wall Street rates AMD as Moderate Buy with average price target of $284.67, indicating 28.75% potential upside
• Chinese President Xi Jinping responded positively to the revenue-sharing proposal according to Trump’s statement

AMD stock jumped approximately 2% after-hours Monday following President Trump’s announcement that Nvidia received approval to sell AI chips to China. Investors reacted quickly because Trump explicitly stated AMD would get the same green light.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD

The new policy mandates that chipmakers pay 25% of their China sales revenue to the U.S. government. Trump posted on Truth Social that the Commerce Department is working through final details and the “same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a positive response to the proposal. Trump emphasized the policy would support American jobs and manufacturing while generating taxpayer revenue.

Export Ban Cut Off Major Revenue Source

U.S. export restrictions rolled out in 2024 severely curtailed AMD’s ability to sell AI processors in China. The rules blocked access to one of the planet’s largest tech markets right as demand for MI300 chips was surging worldwide.

AMD previously agreed in August to share 15% of China chip revenue with Washington. That deal never translated into actual shipments because the restrictions remained in place.

Chinese technology companies buy enormous quantities of advanced processors for AI development. AMD has watched from the sidelines while securing orders from customers in other regions.

Multiple Suppliers Preferred by Chinese Firms

Nvidia will likely resume China shipments first under the new framework. However, major Chinese tech companies typically source chips from several vendors when constructing AI infrastructure.

AMD’s Instinct accelerators could quickly become a viable option if export approval comes through. Chinese buyers generally avoid single-vendor dependence for critical hardware components.

The 25% fee will reduce profit margins on China sales. Yet traders seem more focused on regaining market access than dwelling on the revenue share requirement.

Growing MI300 Adoption Outside China

AMD has built momentum with its MI300 product line across global markets throughout 2024 and early 2025. The company deepened relationships with leading cloud service providers during this period.

Adding China sales would create another growth channel for an already strengthening data center segment. Limited shipments could still deliver material revenue gains given China’s market size.

Analysts assign AMD a Moderate Buy rating based on 28 Buy recommendations and 10 Hold recommendations. The consensus price target stands at $284.67, suggesting 28.75% upside from current trading levels.

Commerce Department Approval Pending

The Commerce Department has not yet issued formal export authorization for AMD chip sales to China. Trump’s statement indicates that decision is imminent, explaining Monday’s after-hours price action.

The H200 chip Nvidia can now sell ranks below the company’s highest-performance products but above the H20 model that Nvidia designed specifically for Chinese customers. AMD would likely ship comparable MI300 variants if it receives matching approval.

Trump’s announcement marks a potential turning point for AMD’s international business after more than a year of restricted China access.

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