Fed Rate Decision Today – Crypto and Stocks on Alert [LIVE]

While consensus firmly leans toward a rate cut, the mood across equities and digital assets reflects caution rather than celebration.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in an 89.9% probability that policymakers will reduce rates at today’s meeting. Prediction market platform Polymarket shows sentiment even more one-sided, implying a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and just 3% probability that rates remain unchanged.

But beneath the statistical certainty lies a genuine policy rift. Several FOMC members argue that a softer labor market justifies easing, while more hawkish voices fear loosening financial conditions could rekindle inflation pressures.

As a result, traders will be glued not only to the statement at 2 p.m. ET but also to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clarity on how officials view the trajectory ahead.

Stocks and Crypto Drift Ahead of Announcement

Equity markets are quiet heading into the event. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also dipped around 0.1–0.2%.

The muted tone follows a subdued previous session in which the S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower and the Dow lost nearly 0.4%, pressured by a decline in JPMorgan stock. The Nasdaq Composite inched higher by about 0.1%, supported by gains in Broadcom, Tesla, and Alphabet.

Crypto markets are equally tentative. Bitcoin remains near $93,000 after posting modest intraday gains, while Ethereum outperformed with stronger upward momentum.

Liquidation data shows short-sellers heavily rekt over the last 24 hours, a sign that leveraged bearish bets are being squeezed as traders position ahead of the Fed.

With the decision hours away, volatility across both stocks and digital assets is expected to rise sharply once Powell speaks — potentially setting the tone for the remainder of December and the first quarter of 2026.

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