Analysis: The crypto market is transitioning from a single-trend market to a more complex structure.
PANews reported on December 12th that Matrixport stated in its weekly report that the latest FOMC meeting results were largely in line with market expectations, but the dot plot did not provide clear guidance on the future policy path, instead increasing market uncertainty about the pace of policy changes. However, judging from interest rate and asset price performance, these uncertainties are still relatively limited in current price levels. Powell's cautious remarks, coupled with early signs of a weakening labor market, indicate that the current macroeconomic environment is different from that at the beginning of the year.
The report points out that against this backdrop, Bitcoin broke below a key long-term trend level for the first time in this bull market, and its price action bears similarities to the market rhythm before and after midterm elections in previous years. Although discussions about the Federal Reserve restarting its balance sheet have intensified recently, overall liquidity in the crypto market remains tight, retail trading activity has not yet rebounded significantly, and the impact of political factors on market sentiment and trading behavior may not yet be fully priced in. With multiple factors intertwined, the market is transitioning from a single-trend market to a more complex structure. During this phase, the importance of position management and risk control is significantly increased. The report maintains its previous assessment that even without defining the current market as a bear market, this consolidation phase is still highly likely to continue.
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