USD retreats post-FOMC – OCBC

Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Dollar (USD) softened broadly while risk proxies, non-USD currencies, precious metals, and even crypto assets saw constructive moves. DXY last seen around 98.46 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risk assets and precious metals gain

“Post-FOMC market reaction has remained constructive for risk proxies, precious metals, non-USD FX and even crypto assets while USD traded broadly softer. We continue to expect USD to trade moderately softer as Fed easing erodes carry advantage while US exceptionalism fades.”

“We reiterate that non-USD FX (especially those central banks likely to be on extended hold or seen as chance of a hike next year.. i.e. EUR, AUD, NZD and JPY) should continue to trade better bid as FOMC event risk fades.”

“Bearish momentum on daily chart intact for now while RSI fell closer to oversold conditions. Support at 98.10, 97.60 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 98.40/60 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 99.10/30 levels (21, 50, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low) and 99.80 levels (61.8% fibo).”