Is Trump’s presidency a disaster or a masterclass?

Donald Trump built his second presidency on his “America First” promises. That he would bring back manufacturing and make life affordable again.

Almost a year later, the numbers, the mood, and the man are moving in opposite directions.

Inflation has slowed, but prices remain stuck. Growth data looks fine, but voters feel poor. Trump says the “smart people” understand his tariffs. But the smart people at the Federal Reserve say those tariffs are pushing prices up.

Trump’s story is that the American economy is winning. Americans’ story is that they are beginning to lose their trust in him.

Voters hired Trump to fix prices

Inflation and the cost of living were the decisive issues of the 2024 election.

Trump leaned into that anger and made big promises. Prices would fall fast. Affordability would return. Mortgage rates would plunge. Voters listened and many believed him.

Nearly a year into his term, those expectations collide with a stubborn reality. Headline inflation is still hovering around 3%. That is far from the peaks of 2022 but still well above the 2% target.

But the cost of living remains the most important issue for Americans, according to a recent survey.

And consumers aren’t feeling any better from Trump’s actions. Since 2020, grocery bills are up by more than 30%.

Electricity prices keep rising. Residential power costs rose more than 10% over the first eight months of 2025, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. 

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, rents and housing costs continue to rise faster than overall inflation. Bankrate estimates that more than three-quarters of homes on the market are unaffordable for the typical household.

Three-quarters of Americans tell pollsters their housing situation has become less affordable.

What voters actually feel

Research cited by CBS News shows consumers judge affordability by out-of-pocket spending, not by inflation rates.

Approval ratings show a similar pattern. An AP NORC poll shows only 31% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, the lowest economic rating of either of his terms.

The RealClearPolitics average shows approval on inflation in the mid-30s, with more than 60% disapproving. 

What makes these figures politically dangerous is that they are no longer partisan.

Even Republican voters increasingly say the administration has not focused enough on lowering prices. 

That frustration surfaced publicly when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene warned that voters cannot be told their bills are affordable when they clearly are not.

Tariffs as policy and as problem

Trump’s economic story rests heavily on tariffs. He argues they forced companies to invest in US factories and data centers.

He says they funded aid for farmers. He calls them a sign of strength and intelligence.

The mechanics are simpler. Tariffs raise the cost of imports and imported inputs. Those costs move through supply chains. At first, companies absorb them. Eventually, consumers pay them.

In reality, the administration’s actions acknowledge this. Trump recently rolled back tariffs on dozens of food and agricultural products, including beef, coffee, and bananas. Those were seen as attempts to cool grocery prices before political damage spreads further.

Nonetheless, Trump continues to defend tariffs in sweeping terms and even frames them as tools of foreign policy leverage. That leaves him stuck with a contradiction. 

Tariffs are sold as the reason investment is coming home and as a policy that does not raise prices. The rollbacks indicate the opposite.

Performance versus empathy

Trump’s Pennsylvania rally captured a final tension. He looked relaxed and energized. He joked. He riffed. He enjoyed himself. Many supporters did too. For them, rallies are less about policy than about belonging.

For swing voters and disengaged voters, tone matters differently. They want to know whether the president understands their stress. 

When he dismisses affordability as fake or tells people prices are already falling, it lands as indifference.

When he pivots from groceries to cultural grievances, it suggests priorities are elsewhere.

In a recent Wall Street Journal conversation, Trump admitted he does not know when the benefits of investment and policy changes will reach voters.

He said he could not predict whether that timing would help Republicans hold the House in 2026.

That admission confirms what the data already suggest. Trump’s economic strategy is long-term. The political test is short-term.

The Federal Reserve is projecting improvement next year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is floating the idea of future tax refunds tied to Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. None of that helps families whose rent and electricity bills are due now.

There is also a looming shock that could change the debate overnight. Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies are set to expire unless Congress acts. 

Why Trump’s presidency is strained

Despite all this, Trump’s presidency is not falling apart, at least not yet. Or maybe it’s too early to judge.

His overall approval has rebounded above 40% since the government shutdown ended. Democrats may do well in the midterms, but history suggests they are unlikely to gain a veto-proof majority. 

Trump governs largely through executive action and retains significant power even with a hostile Congress.

There is also a reason many controversies have not triggered mass backlash.

Fewer Americans follow political news closely after years of turmoil. Scandals that do not touch daily life fade quickly. Economic pressure does not.

This is where the affordability fight becomes decisive. Trump’s dismissive language has turned a difficult economic problem into a personal credibility test. 

When he calls affordability a hoax, then says prices are already falling, he tells voters their experience is wrong. Over time, that message erodes trust faster than bad data.

The danger ahead is not runaway inflation, rather a slow grinding mismatch between what the president says and what households feel.

If prices stay sticky or health care costs jump, that mismatch could harden into something more damaging. 

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