XRP Holds 200 EMA As Short-Term Pullback Signals Next Potential Move

• XRP remains above its main long-term support despite short-term weakness.
• The $2.30 level is shaping up as a key trigger for the next directional move.
• Momentum has cooled, but the broader cycle has not flipped bearish.

XRP is moving through a delicate phase where short-term pressure is clashing with a still-positive broader structure. Recent market behavior shows price drifting lower inside a descending channel, a pattern often linked with temporary weakness.

However, current data suggests this move fits the profile of a pullback rather than a breakdown. Sellers have applied pressure, but they have not been able to force XRP below levels that would confirm a structural shift.

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XRP Price Action Signals a Controlled Pullback

In the 3-day chart, it can be seen that XRP is still trending within a lower channel. However, the zone between $1.90 and $2.00 has held up nicely as a support level, halting a few declines.

More significantly, the price is still above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average line, which is considered the threshold for a bullish or bearish long-term trend.

For as long as XRP maintains its position above this moving average, the prevailing trading condition will remain the same. Returning above $2.30 will indicate a significant change in momentum and could result in a move towards $3.10 or $3.30.

Currently, the likely outcome favors this scenario with a 60-65% probability of XRP remaining above the 200 EMA and proceeding to break through. The bearish scenario will continue to intensify should XRP close below the 200 EMA, which has not occurred as yet.

Momentum Reset Shows a Different Market Cycle

A monthly RSI is signaling a more complex message. As seen in previous cycles, the RSI was bouncing off its moving average and moving up. This cycle, it went below the average and did not bounce back immediately.

This indicates an actual shift in momentum, but not necessarily an end to the cycle. RSI remains between 44 and 50, which has frequently served as a floor during mid-cycle resets.

The bullish trend would depend on RSI remaining between 44 and 50, crossing above its moving average, forming a higher low, and increasing without touching a new low.

If those developments emerge, this cycle would appear as a deeper reset as opposed to a failed cycle, which would be beneficial for a larger move later on.

However, the bearish argument cannot be overlooked. If RSI fails to break above its moving average and instead continues to be pushed away around the 50 level while forming lower highs, the overall trend will be shifted towards the sell side.

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