Commodity strategist explains why Bitcoin is set for $10,000 crash

Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing bearishness could culminate in the asset plunging toward $10,000, according to Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone.

McGlone noted that the cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly vulnerable as the market shifts from hype-driven expansion to macro-driven reversion, and that the asset’s strongest bullish catalysts are now behind it, he said in an X post on December 16. 

He noted that the catalysts, including the launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), growing acceptance 

by U.S. policymakers, and broader institutional and retail adoption, all of which have already materialized and are largely priced into the market. 

At the same time, McGlone said the digital asset landscape has become heavily diluted, with tens of millions of cryptocurrencies competing for capital, weakening Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative compared to its early years.

Bitcoin highly speculative

The strategist views Bitcoin’s current positioning as highly speculative and increasingly disconnected from fundamentals that can support elevated valuations. 

The expert noted that Bitcoin’s strongest rally began in 2020 near $10,000, fueled by aggressive monetary easing and abundant liquidity. He argued that tightening financial conditions and fading risk appetite could pull prices back toward that level.

McGlone also maintained that Bitcoin is behaving like a high-beta risk asset closely correlated with equities, particularly the S&P 500, rather than acting as a standalone store of value. 

Historically, both Bitcoin and stocks have peaked during accommodative Federal Reserve cycles before declining as policy tightened, a pattern he says mirrors the 2007–2008 period, when shrinking liquidity weighed heavily on risk assets.

He further noted that Bitcoin’s major rallies have coincided with falling or near-zero interest rates, while higher rates have consistently pressured prices. With the federal funds rate having surged and the era of ultra-cheap money ending, support for liquidity-driven speculation appears limited.

Overall, McGlone sees a reversion-led downturn rather than a brief correction, with persistent macro headwinds pulling Bitcoin back toward the $10,000 level that marked the start of its previous major cycle.

Bitcoin price analysis 

Bitcoin remains below the $90,000 level following Monday’s sharp correction, with no clear catalyst behind the sell-off. At press time, BTC was trading at $86,436, up 0.25% over the past 24 hours but down nearly 7% on the week.

Technically, Bitcoin is trading below both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $96,517 and its 200-day SMA at $102,379, confirming a bearish trend. The clear separation below these key averages, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA, signals sustained downward momentum consistent with a death cross pattern.

Meanwhile, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 37.25, below the neutral midpoint of 50, indicating ongoing selling pressure without yet entering oversold territory. This suggests further downside remains possible, with no immediate signs of a reversal.

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