Analysts call local bottom as retail capitulates, extreme fear grip markets

The retail crowd has turned bearish from yesterday’s decline in the cryptocurrency market. The mood in the crypto market dropped into “Fear” levels today, standing at 25 points, a modest increase from yesterday’s 22. According to Santiment, the wave of pessimism has historically been a contrarian buy signal, as periods of high fear often precede price rebounds

On-chain data revealed that the market has historically fluctuated significantly, from its “Extreme Greed” peak of 81 in December of last year to its current state of dread, exposing the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency investors.

Retail capitulation paves the way for crypto rebound

Regarding the recent Fear and Greed Index, Santiment noted that the market typically finds strong support when retail investors experience emotional fatigue. On-chain data shows that BTC has dropped back $86,879.07 following its unsuccessful breakthrough attempt. There is also a divergence where sentiment is drastically declining, but the price is not declining at the same rate.

Santiment’s analysis of this phenomenon suggests that while major holdings remain patient, the market is currently experiencing a phase of diminishing selling pressure from small traders.

According to the analysis of momentum indicators, such as the Choppiness Index, the market is in high-range conditions. The high-range condition suggests a weakness in the current decline rather than an impending and prolonged collapse. The likelihood of short-term stability or a relief rally rises significantly if sentiment in the cryptocurrency market continues to reach historical levels of acute concern.

The recent outlook reflects a psychological capitulation. The market may be approaching its sentiment floor as long as macroeconomic conditions are steady and “whales” do not hasten the distribution of their assets. According to Santiment, experienced investors often perceive this sentiment in the cryptocurrency market as a sign that a rebound may be closer than regular traders anticipate, rather than a signal to sell.

According to Santiment, “strong hands” or major stakeholders gather their assets after panicked retail investors sell. The action leads to a price increase. Santiment further noted that  “It’s not a matter of ‘if,’ but ‘when’ this will happen.”

Other analysts concurred with Santiment’s claims. For instance, Joe Consorti argued that patience is essential, and he speculated that a local bottom level is forming as panicked retail investors are shaken out of the market.

Milk Road’s Kyle Reidhead forecasted that the negative sentiment of the Fear and Greed Index will push BTC toward the $90,000 level before a strong comeback occurs.

Institutional retreats are causing major withdrawals from crypto funds

Risk appetite has decreased as companies recalibrate their exposure in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty and limited liquidity. On-chain data shows that products that were in high demand earlier are now under pressure. The mood reveals how quickly positioning may alter during severe panic.

According to on-chain data, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) has seen its first withdrawal since its launch. The outflow reflected the panic in the crypto markets.

On Monday, Farside Investors announced that BSOL experienced a $46 million withdrawal. On the same day, BSOL saw its lowest daily trading volume since its launch. The session saw a major turnaround with the sale of approximately 36,860 SOL after weeks of steady inflows. 

The ETF’s unique provision of direct SOL exposure with staking rewards had previously increased demand, but yield concerns are now being overshadowed by market stress.

Bitcoin-related accounts saw a net withdrawal of $257.7 million on Monday.  Since November 20, when outflows exceeded $900 million, the outflows have been the largest daily negative flow.  

Capital flight has altered investor sentiment, with exposure being reduced in response to a more unstable macroeconomic environment.

Spot Ethereum ETFs followed the same trend. On Monday, spot Ethereum ETFs saw their largest daily withdrawal since November 2, with a net withdrawal of $224.8 million. As investors rebalanced their portfolios more carefully, the defensive changes spread beyond Bitcoin to other significant digital assets.

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