USD holds firm as markets eye November CPI – BBH

The US Dollar (USD) steadied near yesterday’s highs as investors focus on today’s November CPI release. Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments highlight that policy rates remain above neutral, keeping the door open for future easing despite sticky inflation around 3% y/y, BBH FX analysts report.

Fed’s Waller maintains dovish tone amid elevated rates

“USD is firmer near yesterday’s intra-day high; US equity futures point to a modest recovery following yesterday’s tech-driven stock market slump; and Treasury yields edged lower across the curve.”

“Fed Governor Christopher Waller stuck to his dovish bias yesterday pointing out that the Fed funds rate is still 50 to 100bps above neutral. In contrast, most other major central banks have reached neutral policy settings and signaled their done easing. Bottom line: relative monetary policy remains a drag for USD.”

“US November CPI takes the spotlight on today. Headline and core inflation are expected to remain sticky around 3% y/y in November, signaling stalled progress towards the Fed’s 2% goal. Nevertheless, upside risks to prices are not martializing and leaves scope for the Fed to ease policy. The ISM prices paid indexes point to moderating inflation pressures.”