Bitcoin May Target $180K in 2026 as Altseason Fades, Analysts Predict

• No traditional altseason expected in 2026 due to selective liquidity favoring blue-chip assets.

• Bitcoin’s price could target $180,000, influenced by moderated sensitivity to global money supply growth post-ETF launches.

• Contrasting views suggest Bitcoin’s next peak in 2029, following historical four-year cycles with potential 80% declines.

Discover why experts predict no altseason in 2026, with Bitcoin eyeing $180K. Explore liquidity shifts and cycle theories for smarter crypto investing. Stay informed on blue-chip trends today.

Will there be an altseason in 2026?

Altseason 2026 appears unlikely in its traditional form, according to analysis from CoinEx Research. Chief analyst Jeff Ko forecasts that liquidity will concentrate on proven blue-chip cryptocurrencies, sidelining speculative altcoins. This shift stems from maturing market dynamics, where adoption and institutional interest prioritize established assets over high-risk rallies. Investors hoping for a broad altcoin surge may need to recalibrate expectations for a more discerning environment.

The cryptocurrency market has historically seen altseasons as periods of explosive growth beyond Bitcoin, often triggered by excess liquidity and retail fervor. However, Ko emphasizes that 2026 will differ, with global liquidity providing only modest tailwinds amid varying central bank policies. “Retail investors expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Ko stated in an interview with Cointelegraph. He predicts liquidity will be “ruthlessly selective,” benefiting only blue-chip survivors with genuine adoption and utility.

This perspective aligns with broader trends observed since the 2024 Bitcoin ETF launches, which have altered market correlations. Bitcoin’s traditional tie to M2 money supply growth has weakened, reducing its role as a universal market barometer. Instead, institutional flows are expected to bolster top-tier assets, potentially stabilizing the sector while capping altcoin upside. Data from on-chain metrics supports this, showing increased holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum by major funds over the past year.

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for 2026?

Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 centers on a base case of $180,000, as outlined by CoinEx Research. This target reflects tempered optimism, factoring in modest global liquidity increases and the asset’s evolving sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators. Since the 2024 ETF approvals, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader money supply metrics has diminished, allowing for more independent price action driven by adoption and halving effects.

Supporting this forecast, historical patterns post-halving events show Bitcoin consolidating gains before upward momentum. For instance, after the 2024 halving, Bitcoin surged to all-time highs near $100,000 before correcting. Ko notes that divergent central bank policies—such as potential rate cuts in the U.S. contrasted with tighter measures elsewhere—could provide a supportive backdrop without overwhelming speculation. On-chain data from platforms like Glassnode indicates sustained accumulation by long-term holders, a bullish signal for 2026.

Expert consensus varies, but many analysts, including those from CoinEx, highlight Bitcoin’s resilience. “We anticipate Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026,” Ko affirmed, underscoring the role of ETFs in attracting over $50 billion in inflows since launch. This institutional backing contrasts with retail-driven altcoin volatility, positioning Bitcoin as the primary liquidity magnet. Statistics from Chainalysis further reveal that 70% of 2025’s crypto transaction volume involved top-10 assets, reinforcing the blue-chip dominance narrative.

Peter Brandt, a veteran futures trader with decades of experience, offers a longer-term counterview. In recent commentary, Brandt projected Bitcoin’s next bull market peak in September 2029, aligning with the four-year cycle tied to halvings. He identifies five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale over Bitcoin’s 15-year history, each followed by at least 80% declines. The current cycle, he argues, remains incomplete, with a potential bottom before the 2028 halving sending prices as low as $25,000.

Bitcoin’s five parabolic advances. Source: Peter Brandt

Is the four-year cycle dead?

The four-year Bitcoin cycle, driven by halving events that reduce mining rewards, has been a cornerstone of market analysis. Historically, these cycles culminate in bull runs peaking about 18 months post-halving, followed by bear markets. Eight of the past 12 fourth quarters have delivered Bitcoin’s strongest gains, with only one posting single-digit returns, per data from Coinglass.

Yet, 2025’s fourth quarter challenges this pattern, with Bitcoin down over 22%—its second-worst Q4 on record. Trading around $88,000, it has shed 30% from October’s all-time high. Macro observers like Milk Road suggest this flush of excess risk and weak positions sets the stage for rebuilding strength. “Cycles that finish with a heavy reset tend to have better conditions,” their analysis noted, implying 2026 could mark a recovery phase rather than outright altseason euphoria.

Critics question if institutional adoption and ETFs have disrupted the cycle’s rhythm. Pre-2024, Bitcoin’s price swings correlated closely with halving anticipation; now, with spot ETFs holding billions, volatility may mellow. Still, proponents like Brandt maintain the cycle’s validity, pointing to logarithmic charts showing consistent multi-year patterns. An 80% decline to $25,000 remains a risk, but recovery toward $180,000 or beyond could reaffirm the model’s endurance.

Broader market indicators, such as the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index hovering in neutral territory, suggest caution. Apparent demand shrinkage, as noted by analysts, signals a potential new bear phase, yet historical precedents favor eventual rebound. The interplay of halvings, liquidity, and regulation will ultimately test the cycle’s relevance in this evolving landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors will influence liquidity in altseason 2026?

Liquidity in potential altseason 2026 will hinge on global economic policies, institutional adoption, and post-ETF market maturation. CoinEx’s Jeff Ko predicts selective flows to blue-chip cryptos amid modest tailwinds, limiting broad altcoin gains. Central bank divergences and reduced Bitcoin-M2 correlation will prioritize assets with real-world utility over speculative plays.

Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still relevant for 2026 predictions?

Yes, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains a key framework for 2026 predictions, linking halvings to price peaks and corrections. While ETFs have softened some dynamics, historical data from 15 years shows consistent parabolic advances and 80% drawdowns. Analysts like Peter Brandt foresee the next high in 2029, suggesting 2026 as a consolidation year toward $180,000.

Key Takeaways

• No altseason dominance: Expect liquidity to favor blue-chip cryptocurrencies, disappointing broad retail rallies in 2026.
• Bitcoin targets $180,000: Modest global liquidity and ETF impacts support this base case, with weakened M2 correlations.
• Cycle vigilance needed: Monitor four-year patterns for potential 80% declines, preparing for a 2029 peak per veteran insights.

Conclusion

As altseason 2026 fades from traditional expectations and Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 eyes $180,000, the crypto market underscores maturity. Blue-chip selectivity, driven by institutional flows and cycle theories, signals a prudent path forward. Investors should focus on adoption metrics and historical resilience to navigate upcoming volatility, positioning for long-term gains in this selective era.