VanEck: Miner Capitulation May Signal a Bitcoin Bottom

• Bitcoin hashrate recently declined, signaling miner capitulation across the network.
• VanEck says historical hashrate drops often precede stronger network recovery trends.

A wave of pressure from miners has resurfaced after VanEck’s latest report revealed a hashrate decline of around 4% in the 30 days to mid-December, the largest monthly decline since April of last year. This condition is identified as a miner capitulation phase, a situation where some miners are forced to stop operating because costs no longer match their revenues.

Bitcoin Could Be Nearing a Bottom as Miner Pressure Fades

However, this story isn’t always so grim. VanEck instead looks at it from a different perspective. They looked at historical data since 2014, and interestingly, when the hashrate drops in a 30-day period, the asset often reverses course and rises in the following 90 days. The probability of a rebound is said to be around 65%.

Over a slightly longer timeframe, this encouraging pattern has tended to return, almost as if the market pauses to regain strength before pushing ahead.

Furthermore, the current market conditions do not appear to be at a peak of happiness. After enjoying a period of strength, Bitcoin‘s price experienced a fairly deep correction. However, this phase is often considered a “natural cleansing” process.

The pressure from miners to sell inventory usually gradually eases when they can no longer afford it. At that point, the market has the opportunity to form a new bottom.

On November 10, we reported that many miners were shifting their equipment to AI due to the extremely strong demand. VanEck even estimated that this shift could generate revenues of up to $38 billion per year, with potential returns 25 times higher per megawatt than traditional BTC mining activities.

On the other hand, in mid-December, we highlighted the Tether CEO’s statement warning that an AI bubble could be the biggest risk to Bitcoin in 2026, as the global market could be shaken when the hype bursts.

Also, on December 18, we covered an analysis by K33 Research that assessed that selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders was approaching saturation and that the long-stagnant supply could potentially surge again as distribution slows.

As of the writing time, Bitcoin is trading at about $87,716, down 1.24% over the last 24 hours, with $6.56 billion in daily spot trading volume.