FedWatch Tool Data Reflects Low Rate Cut Expectation

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in January faces a 13.3% chance of a 25 basis points cut, while 86.7% anticipate no change.

Market reactions to this potential Fed decision remain muted, with no explicit effects noted on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, highlighting a cautious investor outlook.

FedWatch Tool Shows 13.3% Chance of Rate Cut

The CME FedWatch tool provides detailed insights into market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Published on December 25th, the data indicates a 13.3% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month. The tool also:

With stable rate predictions, immediate rate-influenced market shifts have not emerged. The absence of high-profile commentary or forecasts from economists, analysts, or central figures in the finance industry suggests cautious market positioning.

Cryptos Stable Amid Interest Rate Speculations

Did you know? The CME FedWatch tool effectively predicted non-action scenarios in previous economic downturns, often serving as a precursor to stable market periods.

Bitcoin (BTC), as of December 24, 2025, holds a price of $87,300.69 with a market cap of $1.74 trillion, showing modest 24-hour and 7-day changes of -0.50% and 1.11% respectively, according to CoinMarketCap. Its trading volume saw a dip, impacting short-term investor sentiment.

Analysts from the Coincu research team propose that minimal rate change probabilities could stabilize dollar-linked assets, contributing to a steadied financial outlook. Historical analysis suggests similar patterns of price stability in cryptocurrencies during periods of rate predictiveness within global markets.