Bitcoin Defends 100-Week MA Support, Potential Drop Below $80K Looms

• Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average acted as initial support before the price tested the 100-week level.

• The current price aligns with the $84,000-$85,000 demand zone, indicating strong buyer interest.

• Analyst predictions suggest prices below $80,000 could present attractive entry points, based on historical moving average patterns and market data.

Explore Bitcoin’s defense of key moving averages and what it means for prices in 2025. Discover support levels and investment insights to stay ahead in the crypto market—read on for expert analysis.

What Are Bitcoin’s Key Moving Average Support Levels?

Bitcoin’s key moving average support levels include the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week moving averages, which serve as critical benchmarks for price stability during market corrections. These indicators, derived from historical price data, help traders identify potential floors where buying pressure may intensify. As of late 2025, Bitcoin has held above the 100-week moving average at approximately $85,500, aligning with a established demand zone between $84,000 and $85,000, signaling ongoing market resilience despite broader economic pressures.

These moving averages are calculated by averaging Bitcoin’s closing prices over the specified weeks, smoothing out short-term fluctuations to reveal longer-term trends. The 50-week moving average, for instance, has historically acted as the first line of defense in bull markets, while deeper corrections test the 100-week and 200-week levels. According to analysis from Galaxy Trading’s Beimnet Abebe, Bitcoin’s recent performance validates this framework, as the asset defended these levels following a prediction made on November 14, 2025.

How Has Bitcoin’s Volatility Evolved in Recent Cycles?

Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly decreased compared to earlier market cycles, with the asset’s price swings halving in intensity over the past few years. This shift is largely attributed to increased institutional participation and the maturation of the cryptocurrency market, which has introduced more stable capital flows. For example, Anthony Pompliano, founder of Professional Capital Management, noted on CNBC’s Squawk Box that Bitcoin’s volatility is now roughly half of what it was in previous years, reducing the likelihood of extreme 70-80% drawdowns seen in past bear markets.

Data from on-chain analytics supports this trend. The True MVRV metric, developed by analyst Axel Adler Jr. and tracked on CryptoQuant, reached only 2.17 in 2024, failing to exceed 2 even after Bitcoin hit all-time highs. This muted valuation signal indicates that ETF inflows and outflows, while influential, do not fully impact on-chain metrics due to their off-chain nature. Institutional investors, holding a larger share of Bitcoin supply, tend to dampen volatility by avoiding panic selling, fostering a more predictable price environment. However, this stability also caps the explosive upward rallies characteristic of earlier cycles, as profit-taking becomes more routine among sophisticated holders.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin experienced a 33.3% drawdown from its peak of $126,000 to $84,000 following the October 10, 2025, crash. This correction occurred against a backdrop of record highs in traditional assets like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and precious metals, highlighting Bitcoin’s decoupling from broader risk-off sentiments. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have remained mostly negative since the downturn, yet the asset’s support at key moving averages suggests underlying demand persists, potentially setting the stage for recovery without the dramatic swings of yesteryears.

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

Beimnet Abebe of Galaxy Trading predicted this trajectory back on November 14, 2025, foreseeing Bitcoin’s initial defense at the 50-week moving average before potentially sliding to the 100-week level, and in a deeper bear market, even the 200-week average. The first two predictions have materialized, with the 100-week moving average providing firm support in recent weeks. Abebe expressed optimism, stating he would be eager to accumulate Bitcoin if prices dip below $80,000, viewing such levels as undervalued based on technical and fundamental indicators.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Happens If Bitcoin Breaks Below the 100-Week Moving Average?

If Bitcoin breaks below the 100-week moving average, it could signal a deeper correction toward the 200-week level, potentially testing $70,000 or lower based on historical patterns. However, current data shows strong support in the $84,000-$85,000 zone, with institutional buying likely to mitigate further downside. Analysts like those at Galaxy Trading recommend monitoring on-chain volume for signs of capitulation before considering new positions.

Is Bitcoin’s Reduced Volatility a Sign of Market Maturity?

Yes, Bitcoin’s reduced volatility reflects growing market maturity, driven by institutional adoption and ETF integrations that stabilize price action. As Anthony Pompliano highlighted, this halving of volatility compared to prior cycles means fewer extreme drawdowns, making Bitcoin more appealing to conservative investors while preserving its role as a store of value in volatile economic conditions.

Source: CryptoQuant

Key Takeaways

• Support Levels Holding Firm: Bitcoin’s defense of the 50-week and 100-week moving averages confirms technical resilience, with the current $85,500 level aligning to a proven demand zone.
• Volatility Decline Benefits Institutions: Halved volatility reduces risk for large investors, though it may temper rapid gains; ETF flows remain a key watchpoint post the October 2025 crash.
• Buying Opportunity Below $80,000: Experts like Beimnet Abebe view sub-$80,000 prices as ideal entry points, emphasizing long-term value amid maturing market dynamics.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s key moving average support levels and evolving volatility underscore a market transitioning toward greater stability and institutional dominance. As the asset holds above $85,000 despite negative ETF flows and broader crypto sentiment challenges, these indicators point to sustained demand and potential for recovery. Investors should stay informed on technical supports and on-chain metrics to navigate this phase effectively, positioning for future growth in the maturing Bitcoin ecosystem.