PHL telecom, pay-TV revenues seen growing 3.8% annually to 2029

Revenue from Philippine telecommunications and pay-television services is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% over the next four years, driven by continued network expansion and rising internet protocol television (IPTV) subscriptions, according to intelligence and productivity platform GlobalData.

In a media release, GlobalData said the country’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is expected to rise to $9.7 billion in 2029 from $8 billion in 2024, largely supported by the mobile data and fixed broadband segments.

“While 4G service accounted for a majority share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2024, 5G service will see massive increase in its adoption in coming years and will become the leading mobile technology generation, by subscriber base in 2029,” GlobalData Telecom Analyst Kantipudi Pradeepthi said in a report.

For Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort, competition within the industry will be a key theme for growth, in line with expected investments by technology companies in data centers and artificial intelligence (AI).

“New technologies and innovation could lead to potential game-changers and market disrupters in their respective industries,” he said in a Viber message.

According to GlobalData’s Philippine telecom operators country intelligence report, mobile service revenue is expected to decline during the forecast period due to falling mobile voice service average revenue per user (ARPU).

The report attributed the decline to the shift toward internet- or application-based communication platforms, as well as operators offering free voice bundles as part of their service packages.

“This growth in 5G adoption will be driven by the ongoing 5G network expansion efforts by operators across the country,” Ms. Pradeepthi said.

Mobile data revenue, however, is expected to sustain growth at a CAGR of 7.1% during the forecast period, GlobalData said, driven by rising internet subscriptions, including 5G services.

For fixed communication services, fixed voice revenue is expected to decline amid falling circuit-switched subscriptions, the report said. 

In contrast, fixed broadband service revenue is projected to expand due to rising ARPU for fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) services.

“The growing adoption of FTTH broadband services in the Philippines can be attributed to the increasing demand for high-speed broadband services and the ongoing fiber network coverage expansion efforts by operators,” Ms. Pradeepthi said, citing Converge ICT Solutions, Inc.’s planned expansion of ports to support growth.

Converge ICT’s net income rose 8.4% to P8.90 billion in the January-to-September period from P8.21 billion a year earlier, while revenues for the nine months climbed 10.12% to P32.97 billion from P29.94 billion.

Pay-TV services revenue is also projected to increase steadily over the forecast period, supported by strong IPTV adoption and the continued expansion of direct-to-home subscriptions.

GlobalData said Globe Telecom, Inc. and PLDT Inc. are expected to remain market leaders by subscription share during the forecast period, supported by their focus on mobile network expansion and modernization initiatives.

“PLDT’s leadership in the fixed broadband segment will be driven by extensive fiber network coverage and a growing FTTH subscriber base,” Ms. Pradeepthi said.

For the nine months ended September, both Globe and PLDT reported declines in attributable net income. Globe’s attributable net income fell 14.04% to P17.69 billion from P20.58 billion, while revenues slipped to P131.59 billion from P134.74 billion.

PLDT’s attributable net income declined 10.69% to P25.07 billion, while revenues rose 1.45% to P163.28 billion from P160.94 billion.

Toby Allan C. Arce, head of sales trading at Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc., said the Philippine telecommunications industry is likely to post modest growth by yearend, citing data demand and competitive dynamics as key growth drivers. — Ashley Erika O. Jose