Messari Analyst: HYPE May Outperform LIT as Lighter Volumes Decline

• Hyperliquid’s perp volume fell 60% to $165 billion in H2 2025 amid competition.

• Lighter gained traction via farming but volumes are now dropping significantly.

• HYPE revenue averaged $7 million weekly in late December, down 65% but poised for recovery per analysts.

Hyperliquid HYPE faces Lighter LIT challenge in perp DEX dominance. Messari analyst predicts HYPE outperformance as LIT volumes fall. Analyze volumes, revenues, prices—key insights for 2025 crypto traders. Stay ahead!

What is Hyperliquid HYPE’s edge over Lighter LIT in perp DEX competition?

Hyperliquid HYPE holds the top spot in perpetual decentralized exchanges despite rivals like Lighter gaining ground in H2 2025. Messari research analyst Sam argues HYPE will reprice as the endgame perp DEX, with Lighter’s volumes plummeting after its farming period ended. This positions Hyperliquid for mid-term superiority.

The cut-throat competition among perp DEXes has slowed Hyperliquid, the market leader. Rivals including Binance-backed Aster saw gains, but Lighter posed the biggest threat with features like enhanced privacy. Ahead of Lighter’s LIT token debut and airdrop, Sam downplayed concerns, stating, “HYPE will reprice back to the ‘endgame perp DEX.’ HYPE investors won’t have to worry about fee compression for the foreseeable future.” For Sam, Lighter’s perp volume was ‘falling off a cliff’ due to the nearing end of its initial farming incentives that pulled traders from Hyperliquid.

Source: DeFiLlama

Will Hyperliquid revenue recover amid competition?

Hyperliquid’s perpetual volume dropped sharply in H2 2025, from $396 billion to $165 billion—a 60% decline driven by rising competition and reduced Q4 trading. This compressed fees and revenues that fund HYPE buybacks, with weekly revenue falling from $20 million in Q3 to $7 million in late December, a 65% shortfall. Ongoing monthly unlocks fueled bearish pressure, but Sam anticipates reversal as Lighter farmers migrate back, supported by DeFiLlama metrics showing Lighter’s volume trajectory weakening.

Source: DeFiLlama

Perp DEXes like Hyperliquid thrive on high-volume trading with low fees and decentralized execution. Hyperliquid pioneered efficient perpetuals on its custom Layer 1, attracting billions in volume. Lighter entered aggressively with privacy-focused trades and incentives, peaking during its farming phase per DeFiLlama data. However, post-farming, sustainability questions arise as volumes normalize. Hyperliquid’s established liquidity and revenue-sharing model—allocating fees to HYPE buybacks—bolster its resilience. Analysts track these via on-chain metrics, noting Hyperliquid’s 24/7 uptime and sub-second settlements as key moats.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused Hyperliquid HYPE volume decline in H2 2025?

Hyperliquid’s perp volume declined 60% to $165 billion due to intensified competition from Lighter and Aster, plus lower overall Q4 trading activity. Fee compression followed, but Messari’s Sam sees recovery as Lighter’s farming incentives wane, redirecting traders back.

Is HYPE token a better investment than Lighter LIT right now?

Yes, HYPE shows stronger short-term momentum, up 2% in 24 hours aiming for $27 resistance, while LIT dropped 21% weekly to $2.7 post-TGE at $3.3. Hyperliquid’s market leadership and revenue model support HYPE’s outperformance potential.

Source: HYPE/USDT, TradingView

Lighter launched LIT with 25% airdrop from 1 billion supply, mirroring HYPE tokenomics: 1-year team vesting and revenue-funded buybacks. Lighter stated, “Revenues from our core DEX product will be allocated between growth and buybacks depending on market conditions.” Yet, price action favors HYPE, which could turn bullish above $26.4.

Key Takeaways

• Lighter volumes decline: Post-farming drop signals reduced threat to Hyperliquid.
• HYPE revenue resilience: Despite 65% dip, analyst forecasts no fee compression long-term.
• Price momentum favors HYPE: Up 2% daily vs. LIT’s 21% weekly loss—watch $27 resistance.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid HYPE navigates perp DEX rivalry with Lighter LIT through proven dominance and expert-backed rebound potential. While H2 2025 brought volume and revenue pressures per DeFiLlama, fading competitor incentives pave recovery. Traders should monitor buyback paces and resistances like $27 for HYPE, positioning for 2025 leadership consolidation.