Bitcoin Q1 2026 Outlook: Bears, Long-Term Holder Buying, and ETF Flow

This article was first published on The Bit Journal. Bitcoin still trades under pressure as 2025 approaches its end, and the Bitcoin price is still struggling to recover the upward momentum after several months of decline. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency in the world fell approximately 32 percent of its all-time high of $126,000 and dropped by approximately 5.6% year-on-year, which shows the continued fragility of the entire digital asset market.

Bitcoin Price Slides Before Entering Consolidation

The pressure to sell intensified on October 10 and was still high in the fourth quarter of 2025, driving the price of Bitcoin steadily downward. The asset finally reached a stabilization, trading within a reasonably small range of between $85,000 and $90,000 after weeks of negative returns. 

This sideways movement has led investors to ask the question, will the ongoing negative trend in the Bitcoin price behavior continue into the first quarter of 2026 or will it start to level out. However, with diminished market optimism, a number of on-chain and institutional metrics are starting to hint at the fact that the Bitcoin price can be moving towards a possible inflection point. 

A behavioral change of long-term Bitcoin holders, who have addresses that contain unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that are over six months old, has been among the most notable changes. It is a cohort that had been selling Bitcoin since July, and it seems to have ceased selling it.

Bitcoin Sell Pressure Shows Signs Easing

According to the data provided by CryptoQuant, long-term holders sold an estimated 674,000 BTC worth an estimated nearly $59.8 billion and bought 10,700 BTC in a one-day period. Although this reversal is yet to confirm a lasting accumulation trend, it is a significant decrease in the sell side pressures, which might assist the Bitcoin price in the short run.

Retail and short-term indicators also support this stabilization story. Exchange Netflow records show that Bitcoin outflows surpassed inflows during the entire time of December, indicating that investors were shifting assets out of centralized exchanges, instead of getting ready to sell. Over $4 billion had been assigned to buy Bitcoin in the month, and 294 million of BTC had been taken out in the week starting December 29 alone.

Bitcoin ETFs Show Signs of Institutional Reversal

The institutional action in the United States remains an essential indicator of the Bitcoin price trend. As indicated by CoinGlass, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) realized steady outflows between December 17 and 29, amounting to 1.12 billion. Nevertheless, there was some positive sentiment flow when 335 million dollars was reentering ETFs in a single day, the third-largest daily inflow since October 21 and indicating that institutional selling pressure might be lightening.

This shift is however yet to be reflected in retail sentiment. The Coinbase Premium Index was -0.09, which means that the U.S.-based retail investors were not so interested in the market although the institutional flows and the stable Bitcoin price range had improved.

Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries Continue Strategic Accumulation

In the meantime, digital asset treasury companies are still impacting the dynamics of the supply of Bitcoin. As per CoinGecko, these entities have a total of about 1.175 million BTC worth $152.4 billion. Strategy, which holds the highest amount of corporate Bitcoin, purchased more than a third of all its holdings in 2025 alone, paying around $22 billion despite the fall in Bitcoin price.

Even with these positive indicators, the short-term outlook is pessimistic. The Fear and Greed Index is 32 that represents a fearful market sentiment. According to the analysts, a wider Bitcoin price recovery could be pegged on better macroeconomic conditions, regulatory transparency and more market liquidity that can help establish a stronger upward trend in early 2026.

Conclusion

Although the bearish pressure continues, and retail remains cautious, the initial indications of price stabilization based on long-term holders, institutional buying, and corporate treasury purchases indicate that the price of Bitcoin might be stabilizing. Such conditions and regulatory clarity can precondition the potential recovery and improved upward momentum in early 2026 in case of the supportive macro conditions.

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Summary

• Bitcoin price down 32%, trading $85,000-$90,000 after Q4 decline.
• Long-term holders and institutions show early stabilization with reduced selling.
• Retail sentiment remains cautious, while corporate treasuries continue accumulating BTC.
• Recovery may depend on macro conditions, regulation, and improved liquidity.

Glossary Of Key Terms

Sell Pressure: More selling than buying in the market.
Accumulation: Buying and holding Bitcoin to reduce supply.
Exchange Netflow: Bitcoin moving in/out of exchanges.
ETF: Fund giving exposure to Bitcoin without direct ownership.
Coinbase Premium Index: Price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges.
Corporate Treasury: Bitcoin held by companies as assets.
Fear and Greed Index: Measures market fear (low) or greed (high).
Liquidity: Ease of buying or selling without price impact.
Institutional Flows: Bitcoin bought/sold by large organizations.

Frequently Asked Questions about Bitcoin Price

1. Why is Bitcoin’s price under pressure?

Bitcoin is at the 32% of all time high and sell pressure continues on since October 2025.

2. Are there signs of price stabilization?

Yes. Long-term holders paused selling, and institutional inflows indicate early stabilization.

3. How are institutions affecting Bitcoin?

ETFs and corporate treasuries are accumulating Bitcoin, reducing sell-side pressure.

4. What could drive recovery in 2026?

Better macro conditions, regulatory clarity, liquidity, and continued accumulation may boost Bitcoin.

Reference

Coinmarketcap

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