MSTR Hits 86.2% Open Interest Ratio as STRC 11% Dividend Claim Collides With MSCI Delisting Bets

Strategy linked fresh attention to its stock and products this week as posts on X highlighted an 11% monthly cash dividend pitch for STRC, unusually high derivatives activity in MSTR, and a Polymarket contract pricing rising MSCI removal odds.

Together, the claims and charts framed a split market view, with supporters pointing to balance sheet backing while traders priced heavier risk around MSTR’s index status and recent drawdown.

Saylor Linked STRC Dividend Pitch Draws Skepticism

Adam Livingston said Strategy founder Michael Saylor now offers an “income vehicle” called STRC that pays an 11% cash dividend each month, and he framed the yield as a test of whether traditional finance is misreading the product’s risk.

In a post on X, Livingston said critics have questioned whether an 11% monthly paid cash dividend can be legitimate. He also said skeptics have asked where the cash flow comes from, while, in his view, they still accept lower yields from government bonds despite persistent deficit spending.

Livingston argued STRC differs from typical high yield products because, he said, it has balance sheet coverage that can support dividends for years, does not rely on refinancing windows to survive, and does not depend on consumer demand or economic growth to keep paying. He added that STRC is being valued like junk credit even though he claims its structure and backing do not match that profile.

He also said the debate reflects a larger mismatch in how markets define safety, contrasting STRC with governments running structural deficits, companies that repeatedly roll debt, and pensions dependent on optimistic return assumptions.

Saylor Links Bitcoin to MSTR’s Outsize Derivatives Bet

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor said “Bitcoin makes $MSTR interesting” in a short post on X, tying Strategy’s stock story to its Bitcoin exposure rather than its legacy software business.

MSTR Open Interest vs Market Cap. Source: Strategy / X

A graphic shared alongside the message compared “Open Interest / Mkt Cap” across large U.S. stocks and showed MSTR far ahead of peers. The chart put MSTR at 86.2%, while Tesla followed at 22% and Meta at 10.4%.

Nvidia registered 7.2% on the same measure, while Alphabet stood at 4.1% and Amazon at 4%. Apple and Microsoft appeared lowest in the group, at 3.4% and 3%, respectively.

Polymarket Prices Higher Odds of MSTR MSCI Removal

A market tracked by Polymarket showed a sharp rise in the perceived risk that Strategy’s stock, MSTR, could be removed from the MSCI index by March 31. As of the latest reading, the contract implied a 76% probability, up about 40 percentage points from earlier levels.

The probability line climbed quickly in early December and then fluctuated between the mid-60% and mid-70% range before settling near 76% late in the month. The chart reflects shifting expectations among traders rather than an official decision by MSCI.

The surge in delisting odds has coincided with a steep decline in MSTR’s share price. According to data cited alongside the chart, the stock has fallen about 66% over the past six months, dropping from roughly $457 to around $152.