XRP Price Outlook 2026: Can Supply Lockups and ETFs Drive the Next Rally?

Factors That Could Become XRP’s Price Catalysts for 2026

Discussion around XRP’s potential price drivers for 2026 is intensifying within the crypto community. While transaction activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is often highlighted as the primary growth trigger, several analysts believe deeper structural dynamics could play a more decisive role in the next market cycle.

Rather than focusing solely on usage metrics, attention is increasingly shifting toward supply-side developments that may influence XRP’s long-term valuation.

Supply Lockup Narrative

A growing body of analysis suggests that XRP is gradually being removed from active circulation and held for extended periods across various ecosystems. Insights shared by analysts within the XRP community, including “All Things XRP,” highlight a trend toward long-term supply lockups rather than rapid transactional turnover.

Several developments reinforce this narrative:

• Midas and Axelar’s mXRP DeFi product is targeting up to $10 billion worth of XRP in locked value.
• Flare Network has outlined plans to lock 5 billion XRP beginning in 2026.
• Spot XRP ETFs collectively hold more than 650 million XRP.
• Exchange-held balances continue to trend downward over time.

Unlike transaction volume, which reflects usage speed, these mechanisms directly reduce the amount of XRP available for immediate trading, shifting focus to supply constraints rather than throughput.

Shrinking Tradeable Supply vs. Supply Shock Claims

Proponents of the supply-lockup thesis argue that a shrinking pool of tradeable XRP — combined with steady or rising demand — naturally creates upward price pressure. In this view, dramatic transaction growth is not required; structural tightening alone can support higher valuations.

However, critics remain unconvinced that XRP is approaching a true supply shock.

On-chain data indicates that exchanges still collectively hold approximately 15.4 billion XRP across 26 platforms. Upbit alone accounts for roughly 6.25 billion XRP, followed by Binance with 2.52 billion and Bithumb holding around 1.82 billion. This suggests that market liquidity remains substantial.

Legal analyst Bill Morgan has also challenged supply-shock claims, noting that exchange-held XRP represents about 15% of total supply and roughly 25% of circulating supply. He further downplayed the impact of spot XRP ETFs, which currently control less than 1% of total supply, arguing that scarcity remains more theoretical than imminent.

Ripple IPO Talks Resurface in 2026 Forecasts

Speculation around Ripple’s potential public listing has resurfaced following a recent report by Share Market Advisor, which ranked Ripple as the ninth-largest potential IPO candidate for 2026, with an estimated valuation of $50 billion. The list placed Ripple alongside high-profile names such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Stripe.

While some XRP holders interpreted the ranking as a bullish signal, others questioned the premise, pointing out that Ripple has no apparent need for public funding and would face additional regulatory scrutiny if it went public.

Ripple executives have consistently dismissed near-term IPO speculation. President Monica Long has stated that there is no timeline or plan for an IPO, emphasizing that Ripple is already well-capitalized. CEO Brad Garlinghouse has echoed this stance, describing IPO discussions as a distant, long-term consideration rather than an immediate priority.

XRP Price Today and the Institutional Angle

XRP is currently trading around $1.89, up 2.25% amid a broader crypto market relief rally. Despite the short-term bounce, the asset remains down 11.8% over the past month and 21% over the last eight weeks.

Supporters argue that current price levels do not reflect XRP’s underlying fundamentals. Spot XRP ETFs launched in mid-November have attracted more than $1.17 billion in inflows, with no recorded net outflow days so far.

Institutional exposure continues to grow, with major asset managers now overseeing more than $1.24 billion worth of XRP. This trend points to steady accumulation by institutions despite recent market weakness.

Regulatory developments are also fueling optimism. The CLARITY Act is expected to move to markup in January 2026, and Ripple’s compliance-focused strategy positions XRP as a potential beneficiary of clearer U.S. crypto regulations.

Meanwhile, corporate treasury adoption is expanding. Companies such as Wellgistics Health, Webus International, and VivoPower are planning long-term XRP holdings. In parallel, Ripple-backed initiatives via Evernoth aim to build XRP treasury reserves of up to $1 billion.

Why Bulls Say $10 Is Not the Endgame

Given these developments, some bullish commentators argue that even $10 per XRP would not represent the asset’s long-term ceiling.

At that price level, XRP’s market capitalization would stand near $601 billion — a figure that some long-term holders still view as modest when weighed against ETF growth, regulatory clarity, expanding treasury adoption, and the broader infrastructure being built around the asset.

Whether 2026 delivers a true supply squeeze or simply continued structural tightening remains uncertain. What is clear is that XRP’s future price action may depend less on hype-driven volume spikes and more on long-term supply dynamics and institutional positioning.

Disclaimer

The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are solely those of the author, Caleb Mwenda, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making financial decisions. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before engaging in any investment-related activity.

XRP Price Outlook 2026: Can Supply Lockups and ETFs Drive the Next Rally? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.