- XRP has broken its multi-week downtrend and reclaimed $2, flipping short-term control back to buyers.
- ETF inflows and falling exchange balances are tightening available supply, supporting the move higher.
- The rally needs confirmation above $2.35, while a slip back below $2.00 risks invalidating the breakout.
XRP price today trades near $2.07 as the market moves into Jan 5 with momentum turning constructive after a multi-week downtrend. Buyers pushed XRP back above the $2 handle on January 3, breaking a sequence of lower highs and shifting short-term control away from sellers.
Downtrend Break Shifts Short-Term Control
On the daily chart, XRP has finally broken above the descending trendline that capped rallies through November and December. That trendline rejection had defined the corrective phase from the October highs. The recent close above it marks the first structural improvement since the selloff accelerated late last year.
Price is now trading above the 20-day EMA near $1.94 and testing the 50-day EMA around $2.04, both of which had acted as dynamic resistance during the decline. A sustained hold above this zone would confirm that the short-term trend has flipped.
However, XRP remains below the 100-day EMA at $2.22 and the 200-day EMA near $2.35, keeping the higher-timeframe structure mixed. Those levels form the next major resistance band and will decide whether this move evolves into a trend reversal or stalls as a relief rally.
Supertrend on the daily chart has flattened near $1.80, signaling that downside pressure has eased but not fully reversed.
Intraday Structure Shows Controlled Momentum
Lower timeframes show buyers in control, but not chasing. On the 30-minute chart, XRP is trading inside a rising channel, with higher lows holding consistently since the January 3 breakout. Price is consolidating near the upper boundary of that channel around $2.05 to $2.08, suggesting acceptance rather than exhaustion.
Momentum indicators support that view. RSI is holding above 70, reflecting strong bullish pressure without a sharp divergence. MACD remains positive, though momentum has begun to level, indicating that upside continuation now requires fresh participation rather than technical follow-through alone.
The structure favors continuation as long as XRP holds above $2, which now acts as the first line of short-term support.
ETF Inflows Reinforce Demand Floor
Flows have become a key driver of XRP’s resilience. U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $13.59 million in inflows on January 2, lifting total inflows since launch to $1.18 billion. These funds have accumulated roughly 746 million XRP, equivalent to just over 1% of circulating supply.
That locked supply matters. ETF demand removes tokens from active circulation, reducing the amount available to meet spot selling. The recent push back above $2 coincided with these steady inflows rather than speculative leverage.
This flow profile contrasts with late November, when price weakness aligned with net outflows and rising exchange balances.
Exchange Supply Hits Multi-Year Lows
On-chain data reinforces the tightening narrative. Exchange-held XRP supply has dropped to roughly 1.6 billion tokens, the lowest level since 2018 and down about 57% since October. That trend suggests holders are moving XRP into longer-term storage rather than positioning to sell into rallies.
Ripple’s scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock on January 1 did little to disrupt that balance. Historically, the majority of unlocked tokens are re-escrowed, limiting immediate market impact. Price action following the unlock supports that pattern.
With fewer tokens sitting on exchanges, downside moves now require fresh supply rather than passive distribution.
Regulatory Backdrop Adds Medium-Term Support
The broader regulatory tone has also improved. The CLARITY Act is confirmed for Senate markup later this month, aiming to define how banks and financial institutions can interact with digital assets, including XRP.
At the same time, the departure of SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has been interpreted by market participants as reducing regulatory friction. While not an immediate catalyst, the shift lowers headline risk and supports institutional participation through ETFs.
These factors help explain why XRP outperformed peers this week and briefly overtook BNB to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization near $121.7 billion.
Outlook. Will XRP Go Up?
XRP has shifted from defense to control, but confirmation is still required.
- Bullish case: A daily close above $2.35 flips the long-term EMA structure and signals continuation toward higher resistance zones.
- Bearish case: A loss of $2.00 would invalidate the breakout and pull price back into the prior range.
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Source: https://coinedition.com/xrp-price-prediction-buyers-reclaim-2-as-etf-inflows-and-supply-tighten-the-tape/
