Hyperliquid price remains in a bearish channel ahead of massive $328M token unlock

Hyperliquid price is under pressure as traders brace for a large token unlock scheduled for Jan. 6.

HYPE was trading at $26.45 at press time, up 4% in the past 24 hours. Over the past seven days, the token has fluctuated between $24.03 and $27.18, but it’s still down 15% in the previous month and roughly 55% from its September all-time high of $59.

Trading activity picked up notably. Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) 24-hour spot volume rose 52% to about $236 million. Derivatives data from CoinGlass shows futures volume climbing 28% to $1.21 billion, while open interest edged up 2.1% to $1.43 billion.

This mix suggests fresh positions are being added rather than traders aggressively closing risk. In practice, it points to cautious engagement, not a decisive shift in market direction.

HYPE token unlock approaches 

Attention is now turning to a major supply event. According to Tokenomist data, around 12.46 million HYPE tokens will unlock on Jan. 6. This represents 3.61% of the released supply and is valued at roughly $328 million at current prices.

So far, about 38.3% of the total supply has been released, equal to 345.08 million tokens out of a maximum of 962.05 million.

Such unlocks often raise concerns about short-term selling, especially if recipients decide to take profits. In HYPE’s case, that risk is real, particularly with price still sitting inside a wider downtrend. Added supply can make it harder for rallies to hold, and it may cap upside attempts in the days around the event.

That said, the context matters. The unlock was well-flagged in advance, and its size is small relative to the platform’s daily trading volumes.

Past crypto cycles show that clearly communicated unlocks often lead to selling ahead of the date, followed by stabilization or recovery if demand remains steady. Recent sideways movement in HYPE suggests part of that adjustment may already be underway.

Hyperliquid’s token burn process helps take some pressure off supply. A good portion of protocol revenue is used to buy back and burn HYPE, including a large one-time burn of 37.5 million tokens in late December, worth about $912 million. Beyond that event, burns are continuing at a steady pace, creating an estimated $2 million in daily buyback pressure.

Hyperliquid price technical analysis

HYPE is still trending downward. Lower highs and lows are visible on the chart, and every rebound has been rejected close to a declining trendline. The token is trading below key medium- and long-term moving averages, which continue to slope downward and serve as resistance.

Following a prolonged sell-off, Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating less volatility. This often precedes a larger move, but with the price sitting in the lower half of the range, the bias appears to be cautious. 

While the relative strength index has recovered from oversold levels, it’s still around 50, indicating that the bearish momentum is lessening but hasn’t completely reversed.

To improve the outlook in the near future, a sustained break above the upper channel and the recovery of the $29–$30 region would be required. If the $24–$25 zone is not maintained, particularly around the unlock, another leg lower may be possible.