XRP bulls eye breakout as ETF inflows absorb 1% of supply

XRP defends key support inside a downward channel as ETF inflows absorb close to 1% of supply, with analysts assigning higher odds to an upside breakout in 2026.

Ripple’s XRP token tested a critical support level this week following a rally that elevated it to the world’s third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency by market capitalization, according to market data.

XRP inflows continue

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO stated that the token remains within a defined downward channel on its five-day chart, characterizing the current activity as a “controlled correction” rather than distribution. The analyst assigned a 60% probability to an upward breakout scenario, contingent on the price closing above the 21-period exponential moving average and breaking the channel’s upper boundary near recent resistance.

“Until then — it’s just a bounce inside the channel, not a breakout,” EGRAG CRYPTO stated. The analyst assigned a 30% probability to continued range-bound trading and a 10% probability to a decline toward recent lows.

Commentator John Squire noted that the token recorded a spike in global trading volume within a single minute, suggesting participation beyond small retail trades, according to his analysis.

Data cited by market observers shows strong inflows into newly launched spot exchange-traded funds linked to XRP (XRP), with the products attracting substantial sums since mid-November 2025 and absorbing close to 1% of circulating supply in just over a month, according to reports.

Real-time data from January 5 showed the token trading above recent support levels, reflecting double-digit gains over the prior seven days. The performance helped XRP overtake a major rival in market capitalization in early January, according to market data. The move represents part of a broader recovery from a late-2025 decline, with the asset posting modest gains over the past month.

Short-term technical indicators have produced mixed signals. Data from CryptoOnchain showed the token’s taker buy/sell ratio on a major exchange reaching a one-month high, suggesting aggressive selling pressure has eased. However, analyst Cheds Trading identified the largest four-hour volume candle in a month as a potential bearish indicator, noting a rejection at resistance levels. Other observers warned of technical hurdles, with sell walls noted at nearby resistance levels that could impede upward movement.

Market participants have outlined potential scenarios for 2026 ranging from a bullish advance toward higher levels, driven by institutional adoption and Ripple’s business expansion, to a bearish retreat toward lower levels if profit-taking accelerates and broader market conditions deteriorate.