Altcoin Season in Focus as Bitcoin Fund Flow Declines, But There’s A Catch

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin momentum is still high, as indicated by the altcoin season index.
• Bitcoin funds declined 35% in 2025 to $26.9 billion, while altcoins like ETH, XRP, and Solana recorded a reversal in trend.
• Analyst forecast bearish outcome for BTC, using the Elliott Wave technical analysis.

The altcoin season is currently in focus, as indicated by sharp declines in the Bitcoin (BTC) market. However, the Altcoin Season Index signals Bitcoin dominating flows and performance, raising discussions within the community.

Bitcoin Fund Flow Declines Signal Rotation to Altcoins

CoinShares recently released its Digital Asset Fund Flows 2025 report, showing a sharp decline in Bitcoin flows. 2025 ended positively for digital asset investment products, with global net inflows totalling $47.2 billion.

However, Bitcoin inflows dropped 35% year-on-year to $26.9 billion. Investors were less enthusiastic, partly due to price declines towards the end of 2025.

The report also showed $105 million inflows into short-Bitcoin products, though these remain small with a total AuM of $139 million.

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum saw substantial gains in 2025, with inflows surging 138% year-on-year to $12.7 billion. The surging inflows are likely driven by maturing spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing adoption.

XRP and Solana (SOL), two top altcoins, also experienced outstanding gains. XRP rose 500% year-on-year to $3.7 billion, while Solana grew 1000% to $3.6 billion.

Considering these inflows into ETH, XRP, and SOL, many claim that the altcoin season is on the horizon. However, the CoinShares report revealed sentiments in remaining altcoins cooled, with inflows falling 30% over the past year to $318 million.

Although down 12% on 2024, the U.S. saw the majority of inflows totalling $47.2 billion. Germany saw the most substantive growth with total inflows of $2.5 billion compared to $43 million outflows in 2024.

Altcoin Index Confirms Bitcoin Season

While the declining Bitcoin inflows point towards an imminent altcoin season, market sentiments showed something different.

Crypto analyst CyrilXBT highlighted that the altcoin index confirms a Bitcoin season with a reading of 24. This index measures whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin or not.

A score below 25–30 signals Bitcoin dominating flows and performance. Only if over 75% of top altcoins surpass BTC over 90 days will the index flip to altcoin season.

The market sentiment reflects fear and caution, possibly due to the late 2025 price volatility.

Specifically, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently in the Neutral zone, with readings around 40 across sources like CoinMarketCap.

CyrilXBT, therefore, noted that the altcoin season is not happening soon. The analyst explained that the altcoin season often starts when few people expect it.

Bitcoin Dominance Data Hints at Bearish Outlook for Altcoin Season

Another analyst and crypto trader, OSHO on X, has also shared his perspective on Bitcoin price outlook.

OSHO analyzed the BTC price using the Elliott Wave technical analysis framework. Spotlighting a chart, the trader showed that BTC has completed the corrective Wave A of the Elliott Wave impulse.

Wave A aligns with the late-2025 correction that saw Bitcoin fall approximately 30-35% from its peak. According to OSHO, BTC is entering Wave B, which is expected to push the coin to about $98,000.

“Following that, Wave C should unfold, ultimately driving Bitcoin down to around $54,000,” says OSHO. He also expects a relief rally, pushing ETH to $3,400, and triggering a “brief mini altcoin season.”

Essentially, the trader views the current early 2026 recovery as a fakeout rally before a major bearish leg.

As of this writing, BTC is traded at $92,925, up 1.8% over the past 24 hours. ETH also surged 1.06% within the same timeframe to $3,171, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Analysts have pointed out that ETH must continue to hold above $3,000 to see future price breakouts.