Coinbase Global (COIN) Stock: Why Goldman Just Flipped Bullish on This Crypto Exchange

TLDR

• Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase stock from neutral to buy with a $303 price target, representing potential 18% upside
• COIN shares jumped 8% on Monday, closing at $254.92 following the upgrade announcement
• Goldman cited Coinbase’s growing infrastructure revenue, now 40% of total revenue compared to under 5% five years ago
• The bank highlighted new product launches including prediction markets, tokenization, U.S. equities trading, and derivatives
• Goldman expects broader crypto adoption in 2026 from retail and institutions, though regulatory outcomes remain a key factor

Coinbase shares closed Monday with an 8% gain after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from neutral to buy. The stock finished at $254.92 per share.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro raised the 12-month price target from $294 to $303 per share. At current levels, this represents an 18% upside from Monday’s close.

The upgrade centers on Coinbase’s expansion beyond pure crypto trading. Goldman highlighted the company’s growing infrastructure business and new product launches.

Yaro described the bank’s outlook as having “selective optimism” about crypto infrastructure businesses. The analyst pointed to growth potential in tokenization and prediction markets.

Coinbase now generates roughly 40% of revenue from infrastructure services. This includes custody, staking, and subscription products. Five years ago, these services represented less than 5% of revenue.

CEO Brian Armstrong recently outlined the company’s “everything exchange” strategy for 2026. The plan prioritizes stablecoins, expanded exchange services, and the Base layer-2 network.

New Product Expansion

Coinbase launched several new offerings in December. These include U.S. equities trading, prediction markets, derivatives, and expanded banking services.

The company partnered with Kalshi to integrate prediction markets into its platform. This move targets one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors from 2024.

Goldman sees these products as potentially large markets over time. However, the bank stressed that scale and liquidity will determine success.

The analyst noted that Coinbase’s existing user base gives it an edge in building liquidity. Traditional brokers entering crypto and crypto firms expanding into traditional finance create competition.

Regulatory Factors

Goldman expects broader crypto adoption in 2026 from both retail and institutional investors. The bank pointed to potential U.S. regulatory developments as a catalyst.

Yaro said regulatory reform could drive institutional adoption, which has been limited so far. A draft crypto market structure bill in Congress could prove key to growth.

The analyst warned that failure to pass the bill would create headwinds. Much of Goldman’s upside case depends on favorable regulatory outcomes.

Goldman expects margin pressure to continue in 2026. Competition from traditional brokers adding crypto and higher customer acquisition costs will limit expansion.

The bank forecasts flat adjusted EBITDA margins for the year. Rate cuts and competitive pressures will offset revenue growth from new products.

Bitcoin traded above $94,000 on Monday. The price move supported Coinbase’s stock rally alongside the Goldman upgrade.

According to TipRanks, Yaro maintains a 62% success rate with an average annual return of nearly 16%. The upgrade represents a strong vote of confidence from Goldman in Coinbase’s business model.

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