Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook Challenges the Four-Year Crypto Cycle

DUBAI, UAE, Jan. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its 2026 Crypto Outlook, a research report that analyzes the forces expected to shape digital asset markets throughout 2026.

The annual report focuses primarily on bitcoin and the broader crypto market, examining key macro drivers and risks. It is further informed by derivatives market data, options-implied probabilities, volatility dynamics, cross-asset correlations, and global macroeconomic conditions. It also assesses regulatory and structural developments, including institutional adoption trends and emerging technological considerations, to evaluate how crypto markets may behave in the year ahead.

A central question explored in the report is whether the four-year crypto market cycle, historically associated with bitcoin halving events and post-cycle drawdowns, remains the dominant framework for understanding price behavior in 2026. The analysis suggests that while historical cycles remain relevant, their influence may be diminishing as macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure play a growing role in price formation.

Key findings:

Macro environment and cross-asset dynamics.The outlook notes that markets are pricing in further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a backdrop that could support risk assets more broadly. Bitcoin has recently lagged U.S. equities, and the report highlights the potential for a renewed positive correlation between bitcoin and major equity indices should macro conditions remain accommodative.

Derivatives market signals.Based on options market data analyzed in the report, there is currently a 10.3% implied probability of bitcoin trading at $150,000 by the end of 2026. The report emphasizes that this figure reflects market pricing rather than a forecast, and suggests that current options markets may be conservatively positioned relative to the broader macro and regulatory environment.

Policy and event-driven risks.While the overall backdrop is described as constructive, the report underscores the importance of monitoring key policy and event risks. These include a looming decision regarding Strategy's potential exclusion from major stock indexes, which could affect market sentiment, as well as the possibility of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later in 2026, a development that could introduce volatility across asset classes.

Structural developments influencing long-term trends.The report identifies real-world asset tokenization as a key structural theme for 2026, building on the expansion of stablecoin adoption by regulated institutions in 2025. It also highlights increased attention to strengthening crypto market infrastructure, including efforts to address emerging technological risks such as those associated with advances in quantum computing.

Outlook

The 2026 Crypto Outlook concludes that although market cycles, sentiment, and volatility remain defining features of crypto markets, the interaction between these forces is evolving. Increased institutional participation, regulatory engagement, and macroeconomic support may allow digital assets to diverge from historical patterns, even as uncertainty and episodic volatility persist.

The full Bybit x Block Scholes – 2026 Crypto Outlook provides detailed analysis, data, and methodology supporting these conclusions and is available for download.

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About Bybit

Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 80 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.

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