Wilmington Trust 2026 Capital Markets Forecast: Investing in a Period of Economic Experimentation

Outlook highlights risks and opportunities investors face amid period of high tariffs, shrinking labor force and the continued U.S. debt trajectory

WILMINGTON, Del., Jan. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Wilmington Trust today released its 2026 Capital Markets Forecast (CMF) — “Investing in a Period of Economic Experimentation” — which places the investment landscape within the current environment of large-scale economic and policy paradigm shifts.

This year’s CMF highlights how changes in trade, labor, technology, artificial intelligence and fiscal policy are pushing the U.S. economy into uncharted territory, creating both new opportunities and heightened risks that require adaptability, secular analysis and diversification.

The report focuses on three core economic themes shaping current market dynamics:

• Tariffs & Reshoring – Tariff levels unseen since the end of World War II represent a major economic experiment aimed at reshoring supply chains. These policies are influencing manufacturing activity, employment and federal revenues, while creating opportunities tied to automation, smart manufacturing and capital-intensive industries. However, the risks could outweigh the rewards due to the business uncertainties and economic drag created by these tariffs.

• The Shrinking Labor Force – Demographic trends, tighter immigration policies and accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence are constraining labor supply while reshaping labor demand. Together, these forces carry significant implications for productivity, wage dynamics, long-term growth, consumer demand and future stock-market positioning. Indeed, while there is downside risk for job growth and consumer spending in 2026, a rise in productivity and more tech investment opportunities could surface as a result of the AI boom in the long-term.

• The U.S. Debt – Persistent deficits and rising sovereign debt continue to test fiscal sustainability – and how much the U.S. can safely borrow. The unstable debt trajectory will impact interest rates — and housing affordability — the U.S. dollar, precious metals and cryptocurrency. However, stronger productivity growth and emerging sources of Treasury demand – such as stablecoins – may help offset upward pressure on interest rates, shaping how investors position portfolios to manage these risks.

“With multiple large-scale economic experiments underway, the range of potential outcomes for the U.S. economy has widened,” said Tony Roth, Wilmington Trust’s Chief Investment Officer. “Structural changes across trade, labor, technology and fiscal outlooks are reshaping how markets function and how risks are priced. While we remain cautiously optimistic about the U.S. and global economies, successful investing depends less on long-term cyclical patterns and more on disciplined secular analysis, diversification and the ability to adapt as outcomes become clearer over time.”

After a period of relative resilience, Wilmington Trust expects slower U.S. economic growth in 2026 – below 1% – as tariffs weigh on manufacturing activity, labor supply tightens and fiscal constraints become more noticeable. At the same time, successful experimentation – particularly in technology and productivity – could deliver meaningful long-term benefits.

From an investment perspective, Wilmington Trust emphasizes a disciplined approach to portfolio construction. Markets remain characterized by elevated valuations, historically high equity concentration and tight credit spreads, increasing the potential for volatility. Each economic experiment also creates unique investment opportunities.

• Smart Manufacturing – Investment opportunities may emerge as AI boosts productivity, cybersecurity demand rises with increased connectivity and industrial capital goods providers benefit from automation. Selective exposure, including private markets, can further enhance returns.
• Artificial Intelligence – AI-related opportunities span the full stack, with near-term appeal in cloud infrastructure, hyper-scalers and select energy and cooling solutions supporting rising computing demand, even as parts of semiconductors and data centers appear extended. Longer-term opportunities may emerge in applications and adopters, particularly businesses utilizing AI to drive efficiencies.
• Debt Cycle – U.S. debt should remain attractive on a relative basis, with a lean toward investment-grade credit with historically tight spreads leaving little margin for error in lower-quality debt. At the same time, persistent deficits and currency risks support accelerated diversification away from the dollar, positioning precious metals and selective crypto exposure as potential portfolio diversifiers.

“Periods of economic experimentation demand a thoughtful balance between opportunity and risk,” Roth added. “Rather than attempting to forecast precise outcomes, investors should focus on diversification, active management within less efficient markets and maintaining exposure to quality assets that can navigate a wide range of economic scenarios.”

To read the full CMF report, visit https://www.wilmingtontrust.com/campaign/cmf-2026

ABOUT WILMINGTON TRUST
Wilmington Trust’s Wealth Management offers a wide array of personal trust, planning, fiduciary, asset management, private banking, and family office services designed to help high-net-worth individuals and families grow, preserve, and transfer wealth. Wilmington Trust focuses on serving families with whom it can build long-term relationships, many of which span multiple generations.

Wilmington Trust also provides Corporate and Institutional Services for clients internationally.

Wilmington Trust has clients in all 50 states and numerous countries, with offices throughout the United States and internationally in London, Dublin and Frankfurt. For more information, visit www.wilmingtontrust.com.

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Patrick Fitzgibbons, Senior Public Relations Manager, Wilmington Trust, [email protected], (201) 208-4462

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The forecasts presented herein constitute the informed judgments and opinions of Wilmington Trust about likely future capital market performance and are subject to change without notice. Forecasts are subject to a number of assumptions regarding future returns, volatility, and the interrelationship (correlation) of asset classes. Assumptions may vary by asset class. Actual events or results may differ from underlying estimates or assumptions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

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