Nasdaq futures compress near key levels as unresolved year-end structure persists

H4 and 15-minute charts show tightening price action around central pivot and upper resistance

MacroStructure Desk | Asia / London / New York | Jan 7
E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQH) | H4 & 15-Minute Structure

Market context

This desk update builds on the late-December structure that carried through the final sessions of 2025 and remains unresolved into the first full trading week of January.

While the broader framework has not changed, recent price action has tightened materially, with repeated interaction around the same reference levels. The shift to the H4 timeframe allows for closer inspection of how price behaves within that timeframe, while the 15-minute chart refines the detail without introducing new levels.

The focus remains on how price is being accepted or rejected as compression increases.

H4 2 — Compression from an unresolved 2025 framework

On the H4 timeframe, Nasdaq futures continue to trade within the same structural boundaries established late in December, with price repeatedly rotating around the central pivot at 25,514 and the micro 1–2 resistance band at 25,739–25,879.

Since the end of 2025, the index has spent more time above the central pivot, but each attempt to extend into the upper structure has stalled beneath the descending resistance trend line. This has resulted in a sequence of lower highs against rising support, reinforcing the sense of compression.

Key observations on the H4 chart:

• The central pivot (25,514) continues to act as the balance point.
• Repeated failures above micro 1 (25,739) suggest unfinished business rather than rejection.
• The micro 1–2 band (25,739–25,879) remains the critical gateway to the upper structure.
• Price is tightening between converging structural boundaries, increasing sensitivity to acceptance or rejection at these levels.

A sustained hold above micro 2 (25,879) would bring the upper references at micro 3–5 (25,992–26,265) back into focus.
Failure to hold above micro 1 risks rotation back toward the central pivot, without breaking the broader structure.

15-minute structure — Detail within the same map

The 15-minute chart adds clarity to the compression seen on H4, while operating entirely within the same reference framework.

Over the past 11 sessions, price has consistently interacted with micro 1 at 25,739, forming a pattern of higher lows and lower highs. This behaviour confirms that participation is clustering around the same structural zone rather than expanding directionally.

From an intraday perspective:

• Acceptance above micro 1 has been temporary, not sustained.
• Pullbacks have continued to find support above the central pivot, preserving structure.
• The narrowing range reflects indecision rather than weakness or strength.

The micro 1–2 zone (25,739–25,879) remains the decision area. Directional resolution depends on how price behaves here, not on momentum bursts or single-session moves.

Structural outlook

At this stage, Nasdaq futures remain in a compressed, two-way environment, carrying forward an unresolved structure from the end of 2025.

The market is not lacking direction — it is waiting for acceptance.

• Acceptance above 25,879 would complete the rotation into the upper structure.
• Continued rejection keeps the market rotational, anchored around 25,514–25,739.

Until one side is accepted, patience and level awareness remain essential.