ETH Must Reclaim This Daily Trend to Trigger a 20% Rally

Ether’s (ETH) 10% rise in January has refocused analysts’ attention on the daily chart, where the price structure points to higher prices but only if a key daily trend is reclaimed.

Key takeaways:

• Ether is close to completing a daily double bottom targeting the $3,900 level.

• The 200-period EMA remains the decisive trend that ETH must flip.

• Volume delta data shows retail-led buying pressure, but whales continued to reduce exposure.

Double bottom forms as ETH tests structural resistance

Ether’s daily chart shows a developing double bottom that has taken shape across Q4 2025, reflecting repeated defense of the demand zone. If confirmed, the breakout move targets the $3,900 area, which is roughly 20% above current levels.

However, the immediate obstacle is the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). Since the broader trend turned bearish in November, ETH has failed twice to reclaim this level, with each rejection leading to downside continuation. With the price testing the EMA again, the altcoin faces a key inflection point.

A sustained daily close above the 200-EMA would signal acceptance above long-term trend resistance. From a structure perspective, a strong close above $3,300 would also mark a bullish break of structure on the daily chart, reinforcing the double bottom thesis.

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Volume delta data highlights a retail-led recovery

Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) tracks the net difference between market buy and sell orders over time. Rising CVD signals taker-buy dominance, where aggressive buyers lift prices rather than wait passively.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that both spot and futures taker CVDs have trended higher over the past three weeks, indicating consistent demand across spot and leveraged markets. When these align, it typically reflects the buyer’s conviction rather than shorts-covering.

However, Hyblock Capital data indicated divergence beneath the surface. Whale wallets ($100,000–$10 million) recorded a negative $40 million cumulative delta this week, signaling net selling. Meanwhile, retail ($1,000–$10,000) and mid-sized traders ($10,000–$100,000) posted minor positive deltas of $3.40 million and $28 million over the past six days.

This split suggests smaller participants are driving Ether’s recovery. Whether ETH can break above the 200-EMA may determine whether larger players re-enter or if the price stalls below resistance.

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