Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: China Market Could Add $50 Billion in Annual Revenue

TLDR

• Nvidia stock is up 0.5% in after-hours trading but down about 1% over the past three months as investors wait for clarity on chip sales
• CEO Jensen Huang confirms Nvidia is seeing “very high” demand in China for H200 chips and production has resumed
• Nvidia already has orders for over 2 million H200 chips valued at approximately $54 billion
• The U.S. government recently signaled approval for H200 exports to China with a 25% payment requirement to the government
• Elon Musk’s xAI completed a $20 billion funding round and plans to expand its data center to include one million Nvidia GPUs

Nvidia shares gained 0.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday but remain down roughly 1% over three months. The stock fell 0.5% during Tuesday’s regular session.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Investors aren’t losing faith in artificial intelligence. They’re waiting for concrete news on H200 chip sales to China.

The memory chip sector is booming. Companies like Sandisk jumped over 27%. But Nvidia shareholders have already priced in success of the Vera Rubin hardware for domestic markets.

The real question hangs over China. Will Beijing allow its tech companies to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips?

H200 Production Restarts

CEO Jensen Huang addressed the issue Tuesday at CES in Las Vegas. He told reporters Nvidia has restarted H200 production.

Nvidia already has orders for more than 2 million H200 chips at $27,000 per unit. That’s roughly $54 billion in potential revenue.

Reuters previously reported these orders exist. The catch is whether Chinese buyers will actually be allowed to complete purchases.

In December, President Donald Trump said Nvidia could export the H200 to China. The company must pay 25% of those sales to the U.S. government.

The H200 isn’t Nvidia’s newest model. It’s a generation or two behind the cutting edge. But unlike previous China-approved chips, this one hasn’t been deliberately slowed down.

China Market Worth $50 Billion Annually

Huang doesn’t expect Beijing to make a formal announcement about approving imports. Instead, Nvidia will learn the regulatory status as purchase orders come in.

Huang previously estimated the Chinese market could be worth $50 billion annually. None of that revenue is in Nvidia’s current forecasts.

Huang said he’s not expecting problems from the Chinese side, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Musk’s xAI just wrapped up a $20 billion Series E funding round. That exceeded the original $15 billion target.

The company operates a data center near Memphis with over 200,000 Nvidia chips powering the Grok AI chatbot. The facility plans to eventually house at least one million graphics processing units.

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