Robinhood Cuts Bitcoin $150K Odds to 14% Before June 2026

TLDR

• Robinhood now assigns a 14 percent chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026.
• Bitcoin recently dropped 5.4 percent from a high of $94,792 after facing strong resistance.
• The current Bitcoin price is $89,200, which is 68% below the $150,000 target.
• In October 2025, Robinhood gave a 63 percent chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000.
• The odds fell gradually as Bitcoin entered a downward trend during the last quarter of 2025.

Robinhood has reduced its probability estimate for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026 to 14%, reflecting reduced market confidence, after BTC failed to hold above key support levels and continued its correction from a recent peak, weakening bullish expectations.

The new odds come after a sharp decline from October 2025 projections, which placed Bitcoin’s chances at 63%, following a rally to an all-time high of $126,272. Current price action has lowered market sentiment, with Bitcoin trading at $89,200, well below previous targets.

Bitcoin Faces Strong Resistance After Short Rally

Bitcoin began January 2026 with five consecutive days of gains, pushing the price over 7% higher in early trading. The rally led to a two-month peak of $94,792 on January 5 before encountering firm resistance.

After the peak, Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 support zone, losing 5.4% from its local high. The drop erased short-term gains and limited bullish momentum.

Robinhood’s updated 14% estimate reflects market correction and reduced confidence in the asset reaching $150,000 in the short term. The company shared the revised forecast on X to highlight the change in sentiment.

BTC Price Action Drags Down Prediction Odds

Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,272 on October 6, 2025, pushing optimism about higher targets. At that time, Robinhood gave a 63% chance of BTC hitting $150,000 by June 2026.

But the bullish momentum weakened quickly as the price trend reversed during Q4 2025. By November 1, 2025, the probability dropped to 45%, reflecting the fading upward momentum.

As Bitcoin slid further to around $90,000 by the end of November, Robinhood’s model revised its odds to 27%. These figures continued to slide gradually during the correction.

In early January 2026, the likelihood stood at 13% but fluctuated between 12% and 16% in recent days. As of now, Robinhood’s latest estimate stands at 14%.

Robinhood Lowers Short-Term Bitcoin Forecast

Robinhood assigns varying probabilities based on shorter time frames for Bitcoin reaching $150,000. It gives a 9% chance of reaching the level before May 2026.

The chance drops further to 4% before April 2026 and just 2% before February. These projections reflect near-term resistance and weakened price performance.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” had earlier predicted Bitcoin could soon reach $150,000. Tom Lee of Fundstrat also forecasted a potential climb to that level within 12 months in early 2024.

In March 2024, Standard Chartered raised its Bitcoin target to $150,000 based on market developments. Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein later echoed that forecast with a projection for 2026. Bitcoin now requires a 68% gain from its current $89,200 price to hit the $150,000 milestone.

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