Iran Leadership Odds Jump as Polymarket Volume Rises

• Polymarket volume hit $4.7M in four days as traders reassessed near-term risk around Iran’s leadership.
• Odds of Khamenei leaving office by the end of 2026 jumped to 56%, marking a sharp repricing in longer-dated markets.
• Widespread protests and fresh U.S. warnings coincided with rising volatility across Iran-focused bets.

Trading activity on a high-profile political contract has surged on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, highlighting renewed attention on Iran’s leadership amid domestic unrest and international pressure. Just four days after its launch, the contract asking whether Iran’s Supreme Leader will be removed by January 31 reached a volume of over $5.5 million, placing it among the platform’s most active markets.

On Thursday, a trader identified as Chungguskhan executed trades and currently holds 254,762.6 “No” shares. The contract is hosted on Polygon and has outpaced bets tied to topics ranging from Greenland and tariffs to NBA games and interest rate cuts. 

Longer-Dated Market Reprices Leadership Odds

Separate from the near-term contract, a longer-dated market has shifted, tracking whether Khamenei will leave office by December 31, 2026. That contract is currently priced at a 56% probability, representing a 21% increase over the most recent trading session. The total market volume for 2026 is approximately $573,144.

For much of the period shown on the chart, implied odds hovered in the low-to-mid 30% range. In early January, prices began to climb before breaking higher, approaching 60% and then easing. The movement reflects increased volatility and repositioning rather than a settled consensus.

Protests and Official Responses

Demonstrations in Iran, sparked by a currency collapse, have expanded beyond shopkeepers and now encompass 88 cities across 27 of the country’s 31 provinces, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. The group reports at least 34 protesters killed and more than 2,000 arrested, figures that cannot be independently verified.

Iranian authorities have described some demonstrators as rioters and foreign-linked agitators, while security forces have deployed paramilitary units and reportedly conducted hospital raids to detain the wounded.

International Pressure in Focus

Following this, U.S. President Donald Trump issued two warnings to Iran within a week, cautioning that killing protesters would prompt a forceful response.

He also declined to meet Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah. Separately, public statements supporting Iranian protesters by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have coincided with heightened attention on Iran across prediction markets.

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