ASML Stock Jumps 6%: Why Analysts Just Raised Price Targets

TLDR

• ASML stock jumped 6.7% to $1,273.88 on Friday with trading volume up 8% from average
• The company beat Q3 earnings estimates at $6.41 per share versus expected $6.27 but missed revenue targets
• Analysts upgraded ASML with consensus rating of Moderate Buy and average price target of $1,270.67
• ASML raised its quarterly dividend to $1.857 per share, representing an annualized yield of 0.6%
• High-NA EUV systems priced at $380 million each are driving future growth as Intel and Samsung adopt the technology

ASML shares climbed 6.7% during Friday trading, reaching $1,273.88 after hitting an intraday high of $1,282.00. Trading volume increased 8% above the average daily session.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The stock closed the previous session at $1,194.32. Over 2.3 million shares changed hands during the trading day.

Several research firms upgraded their outlook on ASML recently. Sanford C. Bernstein moved the stock from hold to buy on Monday.

Erste Group Bank also upgraded ASML from hold to buy in September. HSBC Global Research assigned a strong-buy rating in October.

The consensus among 28 analysts now stands at Moderate Buy. Three analysts rate it Strong Buy, 18 give it a Buy rating, and seven maintain a Hold position.

The average price target sits at $1,270.67 across Wall Street firms. Some analysts have set targets as high as $1,500.

ASML reported third-quarter earnings on October 15. The semiconductor equipment maker posted earnings of $6.41 per share.

This beat analyst expectations of $6.27 per share by $0.14. Revenue came in at $8.80 billion for the quarter.

Analysts had projected revenue of $8.99 billion. Year-over-year revenue grew 0.7% compared to the same quarter in 2024.

The company posted a return on equity of 47.74%. Net margin reached 27.08% for the period.

High-NA EUV Systems Enter Production

The company’s High-NA EUV lithography systems represent a major technology shift. Each system costs approximately $380 million.

These machines can create chip features nearly twice as small as current EUV systems. Intel completed acceptance testing for its first High-NA systems for mass production.

Samsung began receiving deliveries for its upcoming 2nm foundry lines. The technology enables production of 1.4nm and eventually 1nm chip nodes.

ASML remains the only company capable of manufacturing these tools. This monopoly position creates a strong competitive advantage in the semiconductor equipment market.

China Revenue Shift and Memory Demand

Chinese customers accounted for over 40% of ASML sales during 2024-2025. This surge came from stockpiling ahead of export control restrictions.

Stricter Dutch and U.S. regulations now limit shipments of both EUV and high-end DUV systems to China. Management expects Chinese revenue to decline in 2026.

However, total 2026 sales should match or exceed 2025 levels. Demand from Taiwan, the United States, and South Korea will offset the China slowdown.

The AI boom is driving strong demand for high-bandwidth memory. SK Hynix and Micron are expanding EUV-capable DRAM production capacity.

Memory manufacturers now provide a second growth driver beyond logic chip customers. This diversification strengthens ASML’s order book for 2026.

ASML increased its quarterly dividend to $1.857 per share. The annualized dividend of $7.43 represents a yield of 0.6%.

The ex-dividend date was October 29, with payment made on November 6. This marks an increase from the previous quarterly dividend of $1.86.

The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14. Its market capitalization stands at $501 billion with a P/E ratio of 51.85.

ASML trades at approximately 45x forward 2026 earnings. Big Tech companies plan to invest over $400 billion in AI infrastructure this year.

TSMC’s 2nm production node is reportedly fully booked for 2026. This ensures high utilization rates for ASML’s Low-NA EUV systems throughout the year.

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