Bitcoin Whales Turn Cautious as ETF Outflows and Exchange Data Weigh on BTC

• On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales are not buying the dip after excluding exchange-related addresses.
• BTC exchange whale ratio rose to 0.504, often linked to higher selling activity during price rebounds.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681M in weekly outflows, pointing to continued institutional caution.
• Bitcoin trades near $90K, with technical signals warning of downside risk below key support levels.

Bitcoin’s recent move back above $90,000 has not been enough to bring large investors back into steady buying. 

On-chain data shows that many major holders remain cautious, while exchange flows and ETF activity suggest that selling pressure has not fully faded. 

Despite some isolated whale purchases, the broader trend points to hesitation and concern about a deeper price correction.

Bitcoin Whales Cut BTC Holdings as On-Chain Data Signals Selling Pressure

On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin holders are not buying the dip when exchange-related addresses are excluded. In the past year, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have reduced their total balances to around 220,000 BTC. 

According to CryptoQuant, this drop marks the fastest decline in holdings since 2023. When major players hesitate to buy during price declines, it generally suggests anticipation of even further dips.

Earlier reports have already questioned claims of renewed whale accumulation. A January 3 report noted that much of the apparent buying activity was overstated. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote on X that whales are “not buying an enormous amount of Bitcoin.” 

Moreno explained that exchange-related wallet movements often distort whale data. Once exchange addresses are excluded, balances held by large investors continue to trend lower.

Signs of potential selling pressure have also appeared on exchanges. Whale influence across trading platforms recently reached a 10-month high. Market observers noticed a rise in whale deposits just as Bitcoin climbed back above $90,000. 

As a result, the BTC exchange whale ratio climbed to 0.504, a figure often linked with periods of increased selling.

Much of this activity occurred on Binance, the largest exchange by trading volume. As per onchain reports, Binance accounted for 71% of stablecoin deposits during the period. The platform also received a notable share of Bitcoin inflows, with BTC remaining one of its most actively traded assets. 

Institutional Demand Remains Uneven as Bitcoin ETFs Record Fresh Outflows

CryptoQuant data indicates that Bitcoin inflows to Binance have been rising for two years, with January posting the highest average inflow of 22.81. Similar patterns were seen during past selling phases, including in 2025, when whales moved funds to exchanges ahead of price declines.

ETF investors have shown a comparable level of caution. Data from ETF tracking site SosoValue shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681.01 million in net outflows last week. January 7 marked the worst day, with $486 million leaving the funds. Although Monday saw positive inflows of $697.25 million, buying pressure did not last through the rest of the week.

Image Source: SosoValue

December was also weak for ETFs, with net outflows exceeding $1 billion. However, the start of 2026 has offered little relief, with funds already logging $209.87 million in net outflows so far this year. Essentially, this trend suggests a persisting institutional interest despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound.

Not all large holders are stepping back. On January 7, three wallets reportedly bought 3,000 BTC for about $280 million. According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s push above $90,000 may have renewed confidence among some major players. 

CryptoQuant previously reported that roughly half of Bitcoin’s realized cap now comes from newer whale buyers. Basically, these investors tend to absorb supply at higher prices and appear less focused on waiting for sharp pullbacks. According to the platform, this behavior indicates rising interest from institutions and top market players.

BTC Trades Near $90K After Rally, Technical Data Signals Caution

Bitcoin recently climbed near $92,000 in six hours as spot trading volume exceeded $39 billion. But as of press time, the first-born crypto is exchanging hands at $90,870.

Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin has now traded below its 50-week simple moving average for nine straight weeks. In past cycles, similar conditions preceded sharp corrections. According to the analyst, holding above $87,200 is critical. A failure at that level could open the door to a decline toward $69,230.

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